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In Reply to: RE: Russian oil embargo would greatly accelerate pootin endgame as it cuts off posted by elblanco on April 27, 2022 at 06:44:58
They will continue to buy as much Russian oil as they can get. And we knew this all along.
Follow Ups:
What's China been up to besides supporting Russia's war?
Keeping North Korea alive as a threat
Conducting cyber warfare against us
Making Hong Kong authoritarian
Ripping off trade secrets
Currency manipulation
Cultural genocide (see Uighurs, Falun Gong)
Sable rattling in the South China Sea
At this point, who's OK with being economically dependent on China?
What happened to those tariffs the Trump administration imposed on China in their brief trade war? They're still there. The Biden administration called a truce with Europe and Japan, rolling back some big tariffs on things like steel and aluminum. But so far, nothing has changed with China despite the pressure from business lobbies.
k
Consider they are buying it at steep discounts. While it's not a cutoff, it IS a lot less revenue for the Russian war machine.
And if the Russians cut off gas to all of EUrope, while it will really hurt Europe, it will destroy Russia's ability to wage war.
====
"You are precisely as big as what you love and precisely as small as what you allow to annoy you." ~ R A Wilson
I've said it here for years.
Their shit is mostly over hyped junk, if and when it even works and there's no adequate training for their troops.
Only Soy-Boys worry about the Russian armed forces.
Chris
If you go back and read news articles from the 1800's (like the British magazine "The Economist") the Russian Empire was far more successful at bullying and intimidation than they were at warfare.And the root cause for the condition you describe so colorfully, is corruption. Was an issue in Czarist times, Soviets and Putin. I think it is especially bad now.
And while you don't want to test it, what makes you think their nuclear arsenal wasn't raided for cash for yachts, too? Because they weren't created to be used, it would face even less scrutiny than the troops.
====
"You are precisely as big as what you love and precisely as small as what you allow to annoy you." ~ R A Wilson
Edits: 04/27/22 04/27/22
They had multiple thousands, if no more, back before SALT I/II and they were most likely cheating.
Even if 1% work, that's a lot of grief for someone.
Chris
Crippling sanctions? Pfft. It's a joke.
"A drop-off in Russian oil exports was minimal and has strongly rebounded in April, despite fears of supply shortages driving recent high oil prices, says Matt Smith, lead oil analyst at Kpler, a data analytics firm. Russia has earned more than $12 billion from oil exports since its invasion of Ukraine, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, an international research group. A month into the U.S.-led sanctions, the flow of Russian petroleum to the world, as well as the revenues from it, remains strong."
It is estimated that the war in Ukraine costs Russia up to $20 billion per day.
Meanwhile the sanctions have already caused the Russian production (and repair) of tanks, armoured vehicles and guided missiles to stop completely.
Others expect results overnight and others are too naive to also consider the devastating consequences a country (like India) might face if they stopped buying Russian oil.
Standards....
Edits: 04/27/22
I saw other EU estimates at $7 billion per 100 hours. I think even that is ridiculously high. Putin doesn't pay his soldiers much, doesn't use expensive or modern weaponry for the actions thus far, and isn't using his A team.
responsibility has to do.
Everyone's applauding De Santis for "owning" Disney but it means Florida tax payers would have to take-on a Billion in debt.
It's funny watching angry and spiteful, impulsive Trumpsters hurt themselves but not so funny when considering shutting off fuel supplies to Europe overnight.
Acting out thoughtlessly, recklessly and impulsively -- even if the intentions are good, is never the answer.
Rom DeSantis wants to win the news cycle. He doesn't care if Disney really gets their district dissolved:
1. This is basically a "Bill of Attainder" which is illegal. Likely struck down in the courts if contested.
2. In order to dissolve a district, they have to get buy in with the counties that would take on the debt and responsibilities (good luck w/that). The counties could take the thing to court and have it revoked.
But if it goes through, Disney sheds up to $2B in debt, which effectively tied them to Florida aside from the park itself.
They could easily De-Disnify the park and turn it into a basic amusement park since the infrastructure is likely going to be dilapidated, and make it known to other states they want to move, and then go since most states would be happy to have them.
====
"You are precisely as big as what you love and precisely as small as what you allow to annoy you." ~ R A Wilson
property tax bill.
A billion dollars in today's economy, is merely a drop in the bucket.
We win.
Chris
Putin's A team arrived on day 1 by parachute at Hostomel airport.
They were all killed in 4 hours.
Putin also paid for the Wagner Group mercenaries to get involved and now 3000 of them are dead.
.
people would be giggling behind him when he spoke about trade.
Donald Trump's tariffs and the trade war his administration launched against China turned out to be far more damaging than many believed. That is the conclusion of research finding companies, consumers and the U.S. economy paid a heavy price for the Trump administration's protectionist trade policies.
Zandi estimated the net effects of trade conflicts Trump has initiated at 0.2 percent in reduced economic growth, 250,000 in lost jobs, and $210 in higher costs for an average family. Such a reduction in growth would wipe out half the projected boost in growth from the tax cuts Trump and the GOP Congress enacted last December.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/trump-tariffs-will-shrink-savings-americans-gained-from-tax-cuts.html
h
.
...having an economy smaller than that of Italy can't keep this up for long.
The Soviet Union's failure in Afghanistan caused it to break up so there is historic precedence.
I blame it on freedom breaking out from the people.
I think what would have been Putin's A team is a fleet of megayachts in Cyprus owned by his billionaire cronies.Corruption killed the Russian Army's effectiveness by stealing the money earmarked for modernization.
But I also bet a ton of military analysists are trying to plot out PUtin's ability to wage war both in manpower and costs. Given the economic size of RUssia, this war is a major expense regardless.
====
"You are precisely as big as what you love and precisely as small as what you allow to annoy you." ~ R A Wilson
Edits: 04/27/22
Well, that's a start.
If the US hadn't cut off domestic production things would look very different for Russian oil.
They cut russia out of SWIFT and then whine about needing rubles for oil.
.
Looks to be up a bit from a year ago or am I missing something?
oil/gas engineers are better at their jobs than almost any other industry. so many disciplines are required.
think of all the shit they have to overcome.
hot, cold, deep sea, underground, remote locations, ...-..big ass fucking problems.
they get better and better at producing more with less every year. the rigs of today and associated capabilities are light years away from even 20 yrs ago.
So you're saying rigs today can produce more oil than ever...and this is justification for having fewer rigs and producing less than we should?
and I told you why it means nothing. Obviously, oil companies have deployed what works for them economically and the incremental gains from deploying more arent worth it to them, at this point.
nobody is holding them back but themselves.
its called prudence.
as of about a week ago.
A bit different from Jazz's graph, which came from?????
Me? I'd trust Baker-Hughes (for data).
Even if his chart were correct it shows that right now 295 rigs produce more oil than 1500 rigs did in 2015.
step of the way.
And in the end, none of your efforts will matter.
j
d
positions of authority must consider the unintended consequences of so-called decisive action which otherwise serves no other purpose than pleasing the peanut gallery.
It's not about unintended consequences. You greenlit this whole business.
-- oil rigs -- that you need a little work on Objectivity.
The objective realm is where the Tough hang out. Provable stuff.
I remember that. Was a very nice invitation. Putin fell for it. Maybe he didn't really have any better options.
k
I am sad but you are correct.
We are diddling along the margins. It's hurting the non energy sector of the economy, but most of the economy is oil and gas.
====
"You are precisely as big as what you love and precisely as small as what you allow to annoy you." ~ R A Wilson
Considering the occupant of the White House who immediately preceded Joe Biden that is the stupidest statement I've come across in a good while.
"I think we'd be in a lot worse shape, that's for sure," Bolton replied. "I think one of the reasons that Putin did not move during Trump's term in office was [that] he saw the president's hostility with NATO...and to Putin's mind, it's a binary proposition: A weaker NATO is stronger Russia."
"So I think Putin saw Trump doing a lot of his work for him and thought, maybe in a second term, Trump would make good on his desire to get out of NATO, and then it would just ease Putin's path just that much more," Bolton added.
You've never agreed with the man on anything. Now he's your best buddy out of shared hatred of Trump? Hilarious.
,
d
j
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