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In Reply to: RE: Blaming this administration for the current happenings is like blaming... posted by MWE on August 15, 2021 at 16:10:15
I think that you misinterpreted my post.I'm not talking about blaming the current administration for pulling out of Afghanistan. My post was not about the decision to pull out, but "the timing" of getting out (the how and when based on planning and intelligence, or lack thereof). I'm talking about the fact the the current administration was caught off guard regarding the speed at which the Taliban is taking/took over the country, and specifically, the capitol, Kabul, hence my reference to Kirby's "Kabul is not right now in an imminent threat environment" Friday comment and my comment that "His watch is broken" (a reference to time/speed). By Sunday, 2 days later, Kabul and the Afganistan government collapsed.
Additionally, on July 8, President Biden downplayed concerns about Afghanistan at his press conference.
From whitehouse.gov -
"Q Mr. President, some Vietnamese veterans see echoes of their experience in this withdrawal in Afghanistan. Do you see any parallels between this withdrawal and what happened in Vietnam, with some people feeling -
THE PRESIDENT: None whatsoever. Zero. What you had is - you had entire brigades breaking through the gates of our embassy - six, if I'm not mistaken.
The Taliban is not the south - the North Vietnamese army. They're not - they're not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There's going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a embassy in the - of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable."
Later in the same press conference the President stated "But the likelihood there's going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely."
There is chaos at the Kabul airport. Due to the miscalculation by the current administration, they are now scrambling to get American, Afgans and foreign allies evacuated. I do hold the current administration responsible for the safe evacuation of American government employees, Afghan translators/family, and foreign allies in Afghanistan and for any military equipment and sensitive or advanced technology or documents that may end up in the hands of the Taliban (and whoever else) due to a lack of foresight and planning. Was this is a failure of intelligence, a lack of foresight and planning, simple incompetence or a combination of the above. America. From superpower to stuporpower (a long time in the making).
Edits: 08/16/21Follow Ups:
'or a combination of the above'
it's your multiple choice question but you omitted 'resolve'
Bidden signaled withdrawal with a timetable months ago ... if that wasn't time enough to prepare for the Afghani's then how much time did they need?
another year? five? that's partially why the US steps into quagmires
I think Biden summed things up succinctly today in his address [I paraphrase] that after 20 years the American people cannot be expected to foot the bill in blood and treasure nation building in a country that won't stand up for itself
'There is chaos at the Kabul airport'
*pfft* ever changed planes in Atlanta?
'I do hold the current administration responsible'
of course you do
be well,
"Bidden signaled withdrawal with a timetable months ago ... if that wasn't time enough to prepare for the Afghani's then how much time did they need?"
After reading my reply to MWE, it should be obvious that my comment was not about how much time the Afghans had to prepare. It's about how much time the U.S. Government had to prepare for the evacuation of government employees, and others and transport military vehicles and weaponry out of Afganistan. Obviously, the Afghans are not responsible for the evacuation, the U.S. Government is. The Pentagon had approximately 18 months to prepare for the evacuation of U.S. personnel and the removal of U.S. military equipment.
" 'I do hold the current administration responsible'
of course you do"
Of course I do. Thinking logically and rationally, it makes no sense to hold anyone else responsible. Certainly not the now former Afganistan government who were not responsible for the evacuation of U.S. personnel and removal of U.S. military equipment.
'After reading my reply to MWE, it should be obvious'
it was obvious
you opened the post saying you weren't blaming 'the the current administration' then proceeded to blame 'the the current administration' by interchanging 'Pentagon' & 'Administration' as you went along using conflation
he didn't misinterpret anything
or didn't you know you were doing this?
OK, I think I understand where you are coming from. When I read MWE's post I thought he was referring to the "decision" to pull out. (The decision was made by Trump to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan [formalized by the 29 February 2020 Doha Agreement]. Biden also supported withdrawal from Afghanistan.) My misinterpretation. From what you are saying and from rereading MWE's post, I think that you are both talking about the "situations" in which Ford and Biden found themselves in.
A difference between the Ford and Biden situation is that Ford only had 2 months to evacuate after the peace agreement was signed. With the current situation, the Pentagon had about 17 months to prepare for the evacuation (March 2020 to now).
My point was that it appears that the current administration, the intelligence agencies and the Pentagon miscalculated how fast the Taliban would advance, miscalculated the strength, will or leadership of the Afghan forces to resist Taliban advances and miscalculated the Taliban's strength and capabilities. Hence, my reference to Kirby's "Kabul is not right now in an imminent threat environment" Friday comment and Biden's July 8 comments "...The Taliban is not the south - the North Vietnamese army. They're not - they're not remotely comparable in terms of capability. There's going to be no circumstance where you see people being lifted off the roof of a embassy in the - of the United States from Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable." and "But the likelihood there's going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and owning the whole country is highly unlikely."
And here we are. On Sunday, 2 days after the Pentagon spokesperson's comment and 38 days after Biden's comments, the Afghanistan government collapsed, the Taliban took over, and the Administration and Pentagon are scrambling to secure the evacuations.
this is far more nuanced and accurate, thank you!
the term 'deep state' used to mean the entrenched MIC and Intel agencies
it then became a buzzword term for any aspect of gov't and it's civil servants that fell under criticism from either major political party [the 'majors]' and their adherents, though with much more prevalent usage by 'the right' just as 'fake news' turned into the meme & trope it did
as you've intimated politics aims any nation's military and intel resources but once the trigger is pulled their actions gain momentum until a state of inertia is reached and that becomes a feature of the political landscape that's included in the calculations of either of the majors at the levers of power
that's why what we've seen play out in Afghanistan bears such an 'eerie resemblance' to Vietnam; the dynamics involved are much the same but they're occurring in one of the most polarized political environments in memory. I mean, how many 'administrations' have been involved? how many different generals? ... granted, the turnover in military leadership is, for the most part slower but there's been many over the last 20 years
at this stage it's very important to remember how we got here and who initiated everything, and why
'co-equal' branches in our system of government really aren't and includes a very powerful component beyond the control of the voters, and that's the aforementioned 'real' deep-state which ALWAYS has the ear of whichever 'nominally' civilian commander in chief they may answer to
when examining the actions of any nation-state it's crucial to account for it's governing components and not blur the line between any of them or it's civilian populace for that matter; once politicians reach the 'national stage' I don't think they can be considered 'civilians' any longer btw
bottom line, ready fire aim caused the mission in Afghanistan and that's on BushII ... what came after the demise of Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda drifted
through several iterations of 'mission creep' creating the environment
where there wasn't, and couldn't be an optimal withdrawal plan
simply because that would require the 'host' nation to step-up and since Afghanistan is an artificial construct inhabited by a population inured to tribalism, militant religiousity, and thoroughly corrupt gov't that's an impossibility where wishful thinking intersects with miscalculation all over the map ... no matter the timeline the results would be the same
I agree that it was best to pull the plug and let the chips fall as they may and since Biden understands he's a one term president, he was willing to deal with the fallout and consequences & to his great credit in my mind
that the logistics involved is all on the Pentagon throughout the entire history of all and any deployments just underscores several of the points each of us made here ... thanks again for fine tuning your focus
regards,
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