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Anyone have any ideas or estimates of how many NOS (pre 70's) tubes still exist in the US? How many by certain type - say El34's.
Follow Ups:
Did you think all the existing tubes in the world are safe in the hands of the big dealers? Of course not - dealers are not museums, and have large storage costs. Figure $10,000 per annum upwards for a large stock. So what's a dealer's life like? He sells some collectible tubes to the Far East for a good profit until they run out, he has a regular demand for NOS EL34, GZ34, 6SN7 etc which he can't supply because he can't get any more. So he often buys and sells new stock - Sovtek, Svetlana etc. Low storage costs, reliable turnover of popular models. But the tubes that languish on the shelves are the Cinderellas - the ones nobody wants, and they sit there year in year out collecting dust and costing a fortune in warehouse space. Sooner or later the decision is made to downscale and vanloads go to the crusher for their metal content - which in some cases includes gold. You might think that only the receiving and transmitting tubes and the old pre-war models get crushed, but not so. Say, for the sake of argument, you have 20,000 ECC81 (12AT7) and you get asked for 12 per year. It's cheaper to offer the customer new stock than to retain and draw on a costly stockpile. So since 12 per year would only sell hundreds before the dealer retires, the whole 20,000 go into the crusher. Some dealers crush audio tubes like these simply on the computer records of quantities sold - low quantities sold, low demand = liquidate the stock. I know for a fact this happens. Now, before I'm inundated with dealers saying they keep all their stock lovingly in controlled environments - which I'm sure is the case for many - I can't give you any idea of how many dealers regularly crush tubes on a large scale - maybe one or two, maybe many, I simply don't know. And you could also speculate that tube users are contributing to the death by crushing of thousands of rarer models by stubbornly using the same old 6922s and 12ax7s as if nothing else existed - and consequently having to use new production 6922s and 12ax7s as a result, whilst rarer and in some cases better NOS tubes are being crushed. Dealers will basically supply demand, and if there's no demand what's to stop them simply crushing the rest? Loyalty to the mythology of the tube community? Desire to preserve antiques? You tell me....... So the answer to 'how many NOS tubes are still in existance' is partly 'whatever quantity remains after the rest go to the crusher, because they are too expensive to store when there isn't enough demand to cover storage costs'. Now there's a sobering thought. Andy
all of them that haven't been used
Remaining NOS tube worldwide> or = to 1,987,654,321,234,567,890,000,312,867,234,123,543 ,
or in scientific notation 2 times (10 to the 36th power) - of which 99% are currently useless to one and all (3 volt; 24 volt etc), as EBAY proves.
Hi,I didn't know about NOS Tubes in the USA, but there are plenty of NOS still in W.Europe.
In my view you cannot class, New production Tubes as NOS, even if they have been sitting on the shelf for a few years.
by people with great printing skills and the desire to make a buck.
Cut-Throat
More than anyone knows.... hardcore collectors that started buying tube gear for 10 cents a pound in the 70s have enormous collections... I know a guy who has over 300 AMPS! And they all have tubes and four or five (or 12) sets of backup tubes. Suffice to say these are certainties; this is an "angels on the head of a pin question," and it will be a close race as to what disappears 1st, life on earth or NOS tubes.
yes, I'd say a shit load, for sure. Just look at what's on EBAY, from a numbers pov.
Hi Chris, This may sound like a silly question, but if a tube made today is stored away for a 100 years would it be classed as NOS, so in theory we would never run out of NOS.
[Badfinger]
You are correct; it is getting to the point where a new term needs to be coined for NOS from the "golden age"-- 1930-1970s era. My mindset is such that I laugh when I see 1980s Tungsram 12AX7s, 1980s East German EL34s and others refered to as NOS... I think the original post specified 1970s vintage. Also all tubes slowly lose vacuum, so perhaps this is another debatable point. Chris
You said 'Also all tubes slowly lose vacuum, so perhaps this is another debatable point.'
So how long does it take to lose vacuum then Chris ? I have 1920's pip-tops which show no signs of going soft , gassy or otherwise and test spot-on as new so it is a 'debatable point' that you actually made . Put your money where your mouth is or otherwise keep it shut . Thank you ! (and please stop making posts with no technical foundation . Guesswork and hearsay comes second place in this world .)
"I have 1920's pip-tops which show no signs of going soft , gassy or otherwise and test spot-on as new"Well, that's about all the scientific proof I need!
How long it takes to lose vacuum depnds primarily on the strength of the vacuum to begin with, the quality of the sealing process, and the amount of residual gas left in the tube.You may notice if you have a large stock of pre-1950's tubes that some getters are becoming smaller and are getting discolored.
You may also notice that pre-1940 tubes are becoming hit and miss. I have several early 45's and 80's that have become gassy over time. There is also the issue of cathode sleepiness in these older tubes.
It is probably true that the majority of tubes with weak vacuum are gone already, by natural selection process.
There is no perfect vacuum, even space is not a perfect vacuum. Consequently, there is no way these tubes will have an infinite shelf life. As to how long, this is indeterminate, as every individual tube will be different. Personally, I'm not greatly worried about my stock in my lifetime. But I wouldn't bank on my 1930's tubes being around in 2030, at least with certainty.
Hi,
Otherwise one starts to see references to russian tubes as "NOS of early production" and such.
I would guess that in a few years time people start to be more specific about russian / chinees tubes like we now are about what runs of 'put in whatever' that are the ones and what are not of the european and american tubes.
Are there evidence (apart from theory) that ALL NOS tubes lose vacuum albeit slowly?If it would take over 100 years for the vacuum-losing process but NOS tubes from the golden age (pre-1970) will be consumed up in the coming 10 to 30 years, there is no point to stress on this possible risk.
Besides, vacuum containers lose vacuum TOO even more readily than NOS tubes! :)
Pack those NOS tubes in a vacuum-sealed container. I started that thought as a joke, but the more I think about it, the more I like it.
Matthew
n.t.
so it really sucks!
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