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Wind power is great until...

142.79.101.139

Posted on February 16, 2021 at 07:17:35
E-Stat
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the turbines freeze!

Frozen wind turbines in Texas

 

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RE: Wind power is great until..., posted on February 16, 2021 at 07:33:31
Ivan303
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Wind has been producing ~1.5 GW less than ERCOT expected for a winter peak event, solar ~1 GW more than expected, & nuclear running 100%. Meanwhile, >30 GW of fossil plants, mostly natural gas, went down. So of course the narrative is -- frozen wind turbines!


First they came for the dumb-asses
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a dumb-ass

 

RE: Wind power is great until..., posted on February 16, 2021 at 07:39:13
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Read further...

"Wind power in particular appears to have been a major victim of the weather conditions, with turbine blades rendered inoperable due to ice, a phenomenon that reduces efficiency and can ultimately stop them from spinning. Wind generation has been more than cut in half to 4.2 gigawatts."

 

But solar is up by 1 GW and the main problem remains..., posted on February 16, 2021 at 07:55:46
Ivan303
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More than 30 GW off line due to natural gas shortages.

IN TEXAS!

Again: Wind has been producing ~1.5 GW less than ERCOT expected for a winter peak event, solar ~1 GW more than expected, & nuclear running 100%. Meanwhile, >30 GW of fossil plants, mostly natural gas, went down. So of course the narrative is -- frozen wind turbines!

Key Words: "less than ERCOT expected"

They know that their wind turbines are subject to icing (newer one come with de-icing) so they accounted for that and are only down 1.5 GW from what was expected during a winter event of this magnitude.

What was NOT expected was a natural gas shortage caused by residential use during sub-zero temperature throughout the state.

A natural gas shortage in Texas, of all places.

And worse. ERCOT and those smart politicians in Texas chose to leave the western power grid in order to avoid those awful regulation and safety requirement that Texans so hate.




First they came for the dumb-asses
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a dumb-ass

 

and the main problem remains..., posted on February 16, 2021 at 07:57:57
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Consumption!

"What was NOT expected was a natural gas shortage caused by residential use during sub-zero temperature throughout the state."

 

RE: Wind power is great until..., posted on February 16, 2021 at 09:16:52
Think wind turbines are the main problem in Texas right now?

 

In Texas, it's plain-and-simple poor planning, i.e. small , posted on February 16, 2021 at 09:18:49
tinear
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government.

 

The problem remains, posted on February 16, 2021 at 09:18:52
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high demand and a 25% dependence on an unreliable source of power.

 

Agree completely!, posted on February 16, 2021 at 09:42:16
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Placing a 25% dependence on an unreliable source of power is not the best way to meet the possibility of unusual demand.

 

Hilarious that you zero in on less than 25% of the problem in Texas. nt , posted on February 16, 2021 at 10:03:34
nt

 

What's unreliable?, posted on February 16, 2021 at 10:12:19
This source is claiming coal and nuclear generation are down too:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/

While wind generation capacity predictably falls in cold weather, so does natural gas supply, and natural gas accounts for most of Texas' generating capacity. If your #1 source of power is subject to shortages in cold weather, how is that reliable?

As for high demand, the industrial sector wants to keep production going and people want to stay warm. Can't blame them. Texas' power system is undersized to meet the peak demand. Demand changes due to weather are predictable, they can be planned for. So the root cause here is either bad planning, or an intentional decision not to size the system to handle infrequent demand excursions. I'm going to presume the latter, in which case there shouldn't be any finger pointing.

 

Nuclear makes up only 5% of demand, posted on February 16, 2021 at 10:18:33
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Your article didn't explain why that power was down.

If your #1 source of power is subject to shortages in cold weather, how is that reliable?

There's a difference between keeping up with demand and failing to deliver - any power!

 

Do you live in Texas? nt, posted on February 16, 2021 at 10:44:39
nt

 

Nope -nt, posted on February 16, 2021 at 11:00:01
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Shouldn't be difficult to understand, but..., posted on February 16, 2021 at 11:03:30
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no other source of energy has been reduced to 50% of capacity.

 

RE: What's unreliable?, posted on February 16, 2021 at 11:36:03
'These recommendations were not mandatory, and over the course of time implementation lapsed. Many of the generators that experienced outages in 1989 failed again in 2011," the investigation discovered.

Fast forward a decade and here we are again' ... [a 32 year period!]

so ... how could anyone have seen this coming?

yeesh!

 

RE: What's unreliable?, posted on February 16, 2021 at 11:40:54
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all those contingency plans and preparations cost $$$.

I'm certain people would just LOVE paying San Diego - like rates for power and gas.

SDGE Corporate Motto? 'Let nothing stand in the way of Executive Bonuses'!!
Too much is never enough

 

RE: What's unreliable?, posted on February 16, 2021 at 12:00:48
with great power comes great responsibility

maybe swap accountability for that last word?

back in Illinois they formed 'CUB' [citizens utility board] back in 1984

other states have them too ... how effective are they?

'almost' might be a good description

what they do accomplish is give 'the press' an easy handle to pull on when things go wrong ... this actually works sometimes ... but now 'the press' is being relied on for giving the public 'a handle' to pull on

how effective is this? may the circle be unbroken might be a good description ... damn near a 'back to square one' proposition

regards,

 

RE: What's unreliable?, posted on February 16, 2021 at 12:16:11
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California had a power crisis which resulted in the Governor being recalled and replaced by Arnie.
A big mistake electing Arnie, but Davis WAS a major Hack.

A power company (broker) was selling CA power out of state and REIMPORTING it at higher rates and raking in millions.

FERC (Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) and the California Energy Commission did exactly NOTHING to help. Davis signed us up for years of higher rates to 'guarantee' power or however it was phrased.

Recently, San Diego had its contract with SEMPRA run out. It had been signed in 1971 or so for a 50 year run. I NEVER saw anything about this on the news and nobody in local government will admit that the fix-is-in since I NEVER saw any signs of competitive bidding or anythinng similar for the new contract.

I'd say such commissions and boards should ALL be based on Mars. Let 'em do something constructive with their time other than waste public money.
Too much is never enough

 

Ya know, regardless of your reactionary views....., posted on February 16, 2021 at 12:17:41
green energy - including wind turbines - will be providing more and more energy every year and doing so at a cheaper and cheaper rate. Even oil companies are behind it and are investing heavily. Maybe you should attempt to educate yourself about Texas's wind farms via the link.

Less than .1% of New Jersey's electricity comes via wind turbines. When Sandy hit we had no power for 9 days.

 

RE: What's unreliable?, posted on February 16, 2021 at 12:22:47
'A power company (broker) was selling CA power out of state and REIMPORTING it at higher rates and raking in millions'

I remember that controversy being all over the news ... for about a week

see the power the press might have for good if they had any attention span?

too much hard werk I guess

regards,


 

RE: What's unreliable?, posted on February 16, 2021 at 12:26:46
pictureguy
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to get more of the facts, you had to wait for the MOVIE.

Did anyone ever go to JAIL?



Too much is never enough

 

RE: What's unreliable?, posted on February 16, 2021 at 12:37:56
yes, many went to jail

Jeff's brother is Tom .. WGNTV meteorologist in Chi-Town

which probably kept the story alive there for more than a gnats birthday

regards,

 

Practical views my friend :), posted on February 16, 2021 at 13:04:17
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...and doing so at a cheaper and cheaper rate.

When using such matches current costs for energy, it will certainly be more widespread. They definitely need to budget de-icing boots in the future!

Solar has far more promise for home power. ROI is almost there today.

 

It's funny - for months, I was seeing all these articles and videos. . . , posted on February 16, 2021 at 13:40:43
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. . . about all these people leaving California to move to Texas - but they've somehow disappeared over the last couple of days. (I know - we'll get our payback once fire season starts, or when we get our next big shaker.)

Another thing I read is that, with the extensive power outages, the hospitals and clinics can't keep the freezers cold enough for the Pfizer Covid vaccine storage (unless of course they've got their own back-up generators).

Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.








View YouTube Video

 

RE: What's unreliable?, posted on February 16, 2021 at 13:48:27
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I count about 10 people charged. some initial trials were 'hung' and charges refiled.

Kenneth Lay is OUT after just over a decade in custody and apparently wants back IN to the power game. He should be sent to the moon to prospect for oil.
Skilling was ALSO convicted.

I don't consider this 'many' but DO think that deposing Gov Davis was a good start. I'd have liked to see an Execution. Schedule it at Halftime at the Superbowl for maximum viewership. Ratings ARE all that matters.

Corporatee Swine will continue to behave poorly until they bring back firing squads or some OTHER real punishment. Impovershment would be the MINIMUM I'd accept.

Link from the Chicago Tribune.....I delivered a metric TON of these from age 9 thru maybe 13 or 14 on my morning route. I had an Afterschool route, too.
Too much is never enough

 

RE: It's funny - for months, I was seeing all these articles and videos. . . , posted on February 16, 2021 at 14:57:55
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about all these people leaving California to move to Texas

That trend of fleeing high taxation continues.

the hospitals and clinics can't keep the freezers cold enough for the Pfizer Covid vaccine storage

While the Pfizer flavor requires cryo long term storage, Moderna does not. They could leave it outside right now. ;)

 

The nature of our system is to size for economic efficiency, posted on February 16, 2021 at 15:16:15
Nobody wants to design for the worst case except maybe the military.

I can understand why. Deploying and maintaining the generating and distribution capacity needed to handle the worst case drives up the cost for everyone and you only see the payoff once in a while. The rest of the time, everyone just complains about their rates.

So there's continual pressure to "right size" the system to cover nominal conditions. When the occasional 3-sigma outlier event happens, like it is now, everybody bitches and points fingers. But then it's quickly forgotten as we move on to the next story.

 

No "plus" at all. Poor conservative planning. Period. It's not like, posted on February 16, 2021 at 15:28:03
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these concerns weren't foreseeable. Greed = poor planning.

 

Oil and gas generation is "frozen." That's the story. , posted on February 16, 2021 at 15:37:23
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Wind is a small part.

 

Turbine freezing is only a small part of the problem. Utilities didn't winterize their primarily , posted on February 16, 2021 at 15:54:10
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gas and coal fired generators. After the 2011 freeze, they were told to winterize. However, that was a suggestion as it isn't law nor is there a regulatory requirement that electricity generators be winterized in Texas, as opposed to many other cold weather states. The tale will be told weeks from now but that's what it's gonna come down to. And sure, they could have properly winterized wind turbines as well but hey, that'd cost money (as would winterizing gas and coal fired plants) and if not required, it ain't gonna be spent. My $.02 fwiw
----------------------

"E Burres Stigano?"


 

Who said anything about a "plus"? -nt, posted on February 16, 2021 at 16:34:49
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Well said Ivan. ^, posted on February 16, 2021 at 16:46:06
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----------------------

"E Burres Stigano?"


 

Let's be clear about this, there are more gigawatts down, posted on February 16, 2021 at 16:53:53
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from gas and coal fired plants, than wind turbines even produce at full throttle with none down.
----------------------

"E Burres Stigano?"


 

But not by 50% if you've read my posts -nt, posted on February 16, 2021 at 16:54:44
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Fortunately..., posted on February 16, 2021 at 17:40:52
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Wind is a small part.

Given it's poor utilization variability!

If half of natural gas output was missing in action, they'd be in real doggie do. ;)

 

RE: The nature of our system is to size for economic efficiency, posted on February 16, 2021 at 18:19:58
you've identified the dynamic

infrastructure spending is of course tied to political processes & taxation and it's expensive ... and not just for power, in general

as long term investments the results are usually only realized across a few election cycles ... if budget discipline to pay for it isn't maintained it doesn't get done ... if it doesn't get done that's a campaign cudgel used in elections, if it does get done the tax structure set up to pay for it [of course they went up / stayed up] that's also a campaign cudgel for the pol promising lower taxes ... few politicians want to pay for the other parties promises so ... each party will float referendums to get shit done hoping the taxpayers will raise their own taxes ... how realistic is that?

around & around it goes ... but the costs involved never go down

yet the taxpayers both need and want that infrastructure and resent whoever is in the legislature at any given time for not giving it to them for free somehow ... when politicians promise to balance a budget they're promising program cuts and almost always target the least visible

teacher salaries are popular targets for short term political gains, you can blame shitty roads on the last guy ... but never cut garbage and snow removal, always nickle and dime water rates [what will the public do, buy it somewhere else?]... bah! rather than *toot* about what everyone knows:

everybody wants to go to heaven but nobody wants to die etc.

sorry for blabbing, it's the meds

regards,

 

"That trend of fleeing high taxation continues", posted on February 16, 2021 at 19:49:26
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So. . . what are the property taxes like in Texas?

Oh wait - I just found it: Texas, 3rd highest; California 32nd highest. ;-)

 

That's one piece of the puzzle, posted on February 17, 2021 at 06:26:46
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Using your table, let's quantify the difference in average real estate: $3617-$2922=$695.

Now, lets look at the primary factor for why the wealthy are leaving: state income tax.

For someone earning $250,000 (which really isn't that wealthy), the amounts would be:

CA-$20,378
TX-$0

Don't know about you, but I know which total I would prefer. ;)


 

Wanna talk stats? , posted on February 17, 2021 at 06:33:03
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"By Monday, the bulk of the losses — about 26 gigawatts — appeared to be from natural gas. Wind generators lost about 4 GW".

If they both go out, I'm sure you realize, the loss is the same. "Gosh, I feel so much better my gas supplier froze instead of the wind energy provider!"

 

Don't forget sales taxes..., posted on February 17, 2021 at 06:38:01
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...first time I toured Texas I was surprised to find just about every major municipality had their own local tax surcharge on top of the state tax. Today it looks like the avg overall TX sales tax rate is ~ 8%.

 

Already have, posted on February 17, 2021 at 06:42:08
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it appears the concept of proportion eludes you keen perspicacity. As with Chris' lack of understanding the concept of total tax burden, you demonstrate the same inability in this case.

Texas Total Entergy capacity: 118.5 GW.

Second grade math question:

Which is a higher proportion - 50% or 22%?

Too funny!

 

RE: Don't forget sales taxes..., posted on February 17, 2021 at 06:44:36
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Actually, I did consider that. CA is 1% higher with a broader increase depending upon local taxes.

I omitted that since income tax alone soundly answers the question why folks are leaving. ;)

 

RE: Don't forget sales taxes..., posted on February 17, 2021 at 07:02:07
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Avg CA sales tax seems to be about 8.4% so overall tax rates don't favor CA if raw tax rates are a major input when deciding where to live. But I'd also consider what one gets for those taxes as well as other intangible factors like "quality of life". Not an easy calculation.

 

False assumption. Never suggested, posted on February 17, 2021 at 07:05:33
tinear
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wind be the dominant source: oil and gas are the main problems. This would tell a reasonable person that relying on any one source is foolish; today, it's freezing cold, tomorrow?
Of course, long ago a reasonable person would have concluded oil and natural gas were major contributors to a far greater problem, global warming, and realized reliance on fossil fuel was a deadly decision---- not just for Texans.
Plus, Texas now says it's not the energy supply, per se, but the way the grid is set up.
Next up: why you love coal so much.

 

Sure, posted on February 17, 2021 at 07:14:35
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In the final analysis, however, people and companies are leaving for a variety of reasons.

 

You continue to ignore the obvious my friend!, posted on February 17, 2021 at 07:35:33
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This would tell a reasonable person that relying on any one source is foolish

Especially one subject to running at only 50% capacity!

Next up: why you love coal so much.

Well, it generates 22% of electricity in the US. Lights and heat are a good thing. ;)

Clueless individuals would suggest we just shut down schools, hospitals, businesses, etc. Great idea, Tinny!

 

The obvious is that wind power works perfectly well in Canada and Scandinavian winters. They invested in , posted on February 17, 2021 at 07:53:20
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extreme weather tech for their wind generators.

In other words, it ain't wind, it's poor planning. Wind power is fine.

BTW, I enjoyed the discussion.

 

Clearly, it's all about the economics -nt, posted on February 17, 2021 at 08:05:24
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New Jersey taxes arre among the highest in the country yet the population is growing., posted on February 17, 2021 at 08:50:48
Can you point to reputable studies showing that in fact the primary reason for people leaving California is taxes? Except for 4 years when I was a kid (lived in a suburb of Cleveland) I've spent my whole life living in the East Coast. I'd never move to California, but not due to taxes. Earthquakes, fires, floods, mudslides are enough to dissuade me.

 

Google is your friend, posted on February 17, 2021 at 09:02:46
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and doesn't require much time to locate multiple sources. Here's one from UC Berkeley.

"The high cost of housing (71%) is the most common reason givenby voters for wanting to leave California. However, hightaxes (58%) and the state's political culture (46%) are also prominently mentioned,particularly by Republicans and conservatives."

And another from Hoover:

"The reason? Economics, plain and simple. California is too expensive, and its taxes and regulations are too high. The Tax Foundation ranks California 48th in terms of business climate. California is also ranked 48th in terms of regulatory burdens. And California's cost of living is 50 percent higher than the national average."

Nice places to visit periodically, but...

 

RE: Google is your friend, posted on February 17, 2021 at 09:30:50
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Not to mention that California is reported to be the 5th largest economy in the world, if it is compared to countries. And, not to forget, like 40,000,000 people reside in California. Oh, it is reported that California produces 13% of the nations agricultural receipts. It's a brutal 53 degrees F where I'm at near SF, so nothing's perfect.


So let us stop talkin' falsely now, the hour's getting late --
Robert Allen Zimmerman

 

Apparently, posted on February 17, 2021 at 10:14:54
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your cheerleading isn't working for hundreds of thousands.

 

I'm sure you don't watch Bill Maher, but....., posted on February 17, 2021 at 10:27:12
he's been trying to build a small shed and put some solar panels in for his house somewhere in LA. Maher has been talking how absurd the regulations are in Cal. and has been displaying on his show about how long its taking to get approval for his solar. As of last Friday its been 1089 days and he still does not have permission to install his solar. He showed a pic of a small shed on his property that took 3 years to get approved. Apparently amazingly stupid shit goes on in Cal.

 

Don't watch any political talk shows, posted on February 17, 2021 at 10:33:04
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Not surprised by his experience.

 

Maher's experience is obviously a one-off, posted on February 17, 2021 at 13:28:08
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I didn't have any delays due to regulations when I had solar panels put on our house, nor do I know anybody who did. The whole process was very smooth in fact. OTOH, I don't doubt that old entitled Bill may have had some trouble with approvals.

 

Blame it on a green energy policy that hasn't even been adopted, posted on February 17, 2021 at 13:31:51
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the gris is part of the problem, as is the entire energy strategy.

Texas decided it didn't want any federal controls, so established an energy grid that didn't cross state lines, so are unable to buy electricity from outside the state, as other states can do.

My second statement , that a privatization stratagy is also to blame is supported by the fact that publicly owned utilities have a more dependable record of service, since they tend to spend more on needed upgrades and maintenance, instead of deferring maintenance in favor of profits to stockholders or management bonuses.

Some small amounts of electrons are bought and sold across the Oklahoma and New Mexico borders, but not enough to fall under federal regulations.

I just read how this weather event has kind of shut down the ever popular Texas succession from the union talk. They need to shut their yapper and raise some taxes so they can pay their own way. They receive $1.07 for every $1.00 they send to the feds.

I must always acknowledge the Texas women, they are great. The men, meh. Only place in all of my world travels where I was shot at. Also the only place with good Texas swing music and BBQ.

 

"someone earning $250,000 (which really isn't that wealthy)", posted on February 17, 2021 at 13:42:22
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Speak for yourself E-Stat - my highest earning year ever was about half of that. Even together with Ms. CfL, we never broke $190,000. Moreover, there are various CA deductions which lower what you pay below the nominal rate.

 

RE: "someone earning $250,000 (which really isn't that wealthy)", posted on February 17, 2021 at 13:50:19
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my highest earning year ever was about half of that.

Same for me as I am not a one percenter either. I refer to the category of earnings most referenced in the news articles.

 

Strange. Wonder why he's having trouble. nt, posted on February 17, 2021 at 21:23:59
nt

 

hmm, posted on February 17, 2021 at 22:59:43
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lol

 

RE: hmm, posted on February 18, 2021 at 03:33:38
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part 2

 

I am grateful, posted on February 18, 2021 at 07:08:31
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that I do not suffer from PUKE* where those afflicted exhibit irrational political reactions to everyday events.

PUKE*: Paranoid Uncontrollable Knee-jerk Epilepsy

 

RE: I am grateful, posted on February 18, 2021 at 17:04:55
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Usually, problems start from political decisions. The Folks in Flint Michigan can support the people in Texas I am sure. I think they're still waiting for clean water more than half a decade later. But I guess it's just an overreaction. Coincidental - another GOP Moronic leader.


 

When the GOP run things, posted on February 20, 2021 at 16:18:06
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It usually turns out shyte. That's why Republicans hate words like Government-run. Of course, when the GOP runs it is always crap.

 

RE: When the GOP run things, posted on February 20, 2021 at 16:51:26
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AMEN!

Phil

 

RE: When the GOP run things, posted on February 20, 2021 at 21:54:31
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AMEN!

Phil

 

RE: When the GOP run things, posted on February 20, 2021 at 22:13:05
ruthless inefficiency

 

RE: When the GOP run things, posted on February 21, 2021 at 01:22:33
RGA
Reviewer

Posts: 15177
Location: Hong Kong
Joined: August 8, 2001

Yup.

 

Wind Power, posted on February 21, 2021 at 05:05:50
RGA
Reviewer

Posts: 15177
Location: Hong Kong
Joined: August 8, 2001

Yup

 

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