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74.32.106.100
This was reported Friday. Almost one in ten. Surely some of you are in foreclosure and/or know someone that is. I don't. You?
ET
Follow Ups:
that many folks gamble with their homes on ARMs. I'm not at all surprised that Nevada leads the way!
rw
...are nothing compared to no down payment, interest only for a few years, even if you don't qualify.
Everyone expected home prices to continue going up as they have for the past many years.
at least those arrangements, like fixed interest loans, are a known quantity from the outset. ARMs have no predictability.
rw
"In Contra Costa, the Bay Area county with the most foreclosures, deputies do 45 evictions a week, up 30 percent from last year...
In eastern Antioch, 4.1 percent of all homes and condos went through foreclosure in 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems. That's as bad as the hardest-hit neighborhood of Stockton - often cited as the foreclosure capital of California and even the nation.
In eastern Contra Costa, more than 2 percent of all homes in eight ZIP codes were foreclosed on in 2007, a rate that rivals most Stockton neighborhoods."
I live in Contra Costa County.
One of my employees turned his house back over to the bank for a 'short-sale', which is one step above a foreclosure.
Even if foreclosures for 2008 hit only 5%, that's still quite a lot.
Just checked The Boston Globe, The Wall Street Journal and CNN.com and couldn't find any new foreclosure statistics beyond the ones I described below on 2007 Q4 numbers of between .83% and %2.5% (approximately).
Me too. I was curious of the data too. It was the point of my post. It was all over the news Friday. Very hyped with "the worst since the great depression" and it was posing the possibility of a government aid plan like during the depression. Today as I search print media to validate it and I cannot. All I can find is this: "The delinquency rate was 5.82 percent and foreclosure rate 2.04 percent of all outstanding loans " from the Mortgage Bankers Assoc. re the 4th qtr of 2007. Dag nab it! Oh well...
ET
Phew, it's a relief actually, though of course the problem is very real and, most likely, getting worse.
I can't help you with this specific number but I linked to the Mortgage Banker's Association site which indicates that for the fourth quarter of 2007 nationally almost 6% of mortgages were delinquent and another roughly 2% were in foreclosure. I would expect that in some of the worst hit areas the numbers are substantially worse and I also would anticipate rising numbers for the next two quarters as more ARMs reset.
There is an interesting N Y Times article here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/12/business/12credit.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
They are bad, but a far cry from a 9% foreclosure rate. I think perhaps the 9% is a combination of foreclosure and delinquent payments, which may or may not lead to foreclosure.
I agree - it's bad and going to get worse. But we have to be careful with the facts we post here. 9% of mortgages are not in foreclosure.
The attached shows the worst hit areas by zipcode in raw numbers as of last December. It looks like California, Nevada, Florida and Michigan are really bearing the brunt of this.
Since 16 of the top 20 are from there...
ET
thanks very much
"Man is the only animal that blushes - or needs to" Mark Twain
I've seen quite a few in my area. There are 400K houses in my wife's co-worker's neighborhoods that have been empty since they were built two years ago! Not too mention all of the foreclosures in between.Unlike San Francisco, you get a REAL home for 400K and much less around here. Watching the show "flip that house" I'm amazed at what people are paying for hole in the wall homes...just plain crazy!
I've come to a conclusion. The people that can't see what is happening.Are the ones that refuse to see what is happening.
'Twas ever thus....
Bill.
According to the Los Angeles Times, foreclosures are just over 2% and delinquent mortgages 6%. See the link below.
I don't know anyone personally, but I have friends who do. It's a really problem here in Massachusetts.
..... Foreclosures are usually referred to as mortgagee in possession or repossession
Our official figures are less than .5% of dwellings are repossessed. However, it is a trend here for the mortgagee to prefer the borrower to jump rather than be pushed into a forced sale. If we took the total number of people selling their home because of financial stress then I suspect our rate would be several percent.
We have a strong economy here but we have just had our 12th official interest rate rise since early 2002. The official rate is now 7.25% Banks add their margins to this rate. So typically a variable rate home loan is about 9% over 20 to 30 year term.
Anecdotally I have not seen an increase in the number of forced sales but our official figures say otherwise (they are increasing)
Smile
Sox
What's the government's rationale for keeping interest rates so high? Are you experiencing inflation?
You guys are net exporters of raw materials, right? How does a strong Aussie dollar help on that front?
What's you energy situation? I could see a strong currency helping to keep energy imports down.
...Monetary policy is set by the reserve Bank of Australia independent of the Federal Government. The Federal Government in consultation with the Reserve Bank have set a target rate of inflation to be between 2% & 3%.
Australia has pretty much had that rate of inflation for many many years.
The Federal Government has no debt & runs surplus budgets. (17 out of the last 25 I think)
The interest rate rises are proactive measures to keep inflation under control. Given the unprecedented resources boom it is any wonder we have some inflationary pressures here.
I like the Aussie dollar being strong but many exporters disagree.
The price of fuel has gone up markedly over the last few years but I dont get on the band-wagon and whinge about it. I dont look at the price at the pump I just pull in a put in as much fuel as the tank will hold. Life is too short to worry about such tedious issues.
Smile
Sox
... or some reason the government runs the banks... oh of course, we have healthcare system!!!
That explains it.
I too just fill the tank and get on with it, but we are lucky not to be spending every last cent every week.
I know people who are beginning to feel the pinch.
