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CNNMoney (New York) First published July 5, 2017: 12:44 PM ET
The internal combustion engine has been around more than a century. And it should be around for decades to come, despite Volvo's announcement Wednesday that it will move away from cars powered only by gasoline.
"It's hard to find technology that is better suited for cars," said Rebecca Lindland, executive analyst for Kelley Blue Book. "The idea that we are moving completely away from internal combustion is completely exaggerated."
There is no doubt that electric cars are becoming more popular. Prices are becoming more competitive with traditional gasoline-powered cars.
And Lindland and other experts say several factors will move the industry toward even greater use of electric motors, including tougher environmental regulations and the desire for self-driving cars, which will need more electrical juice for all their computing needs.
But eliminating the gas engine altogether will be difficult, if not impossible.
The first reason is profitability. The stock of tiny Tesla (TSLA) may be worth more than either General Motors (GM) or Ford (F), but it has yet to report an annual profit. Traditional automakers are making billions of dollars selling millions of gasoline-powered cars each. No one has yet figured out a way to make a profit selling electric-only vehicles.
It was only recently that anyone offered an electric-only car at a competitive price that can go more than 200 miles on a single charge. The Chevrolet Bolt went on sale late last year, and the Tesla Model 3 will soon start rolling off the production line. Those companies will at least initially lose money on those cars.
Volvo: Gas-only cars are history after 2019
The cost of making those electric cars should be coming down as production of the cars and their key components, such as lithium ion batteries, increases. But costs aren't coming down nearly as fast as they did for other types of technology -- say, for new computer chips.
And the market share for pure-electric vehicles will be tied directly to battery costs, Ron Cogan, editor and publisher of Green Car Journal.
"We have not seen the cost come down to the point they need to for mass market sales," he said. "It's really hard to predict."
Gasoline-powered cars themselves are becoming far more efficient, thanks to new technology and new materials. No one anticipates that gasoline engines will be regulated out of existence.
"I don't expect internal combustion to go away any time soon," Cogan said. "It keeps getting better and better and better."
Related: Trump might ease fuel economy rules, but automakers won't be off the hook
For that matter, even Volvo isn't dropping gas-powered engines completely. Many of the cars Volvo plans to sell will be hybrids, not pure electric cars. The Swedish automaker, now owned by Chinese automaker Geely, has yet to offer an electric-only car.
Volvo is something of a trendsetter. It was one of the first automakers to stress safety features as part of its marketing. But it is still only a niche player, with global sales of just over 500,000 vehicles. Even if Volvo reaches its target of selling 800,000 cars a year by 2020, that will be less than 1% of sales across the industry.
"If GM, Toyota (TM) or Volkswagen (VLKAF) made the same statement as Volvo, it would be a bigger deal," Lindland said. "Those larger automakers might be moving in that direction, but they're not getting there any time soon."
Follow Ups:
:-)
Warmest
Tim Bailey
Skeptical Measurer & Audio Scrounger
I would think a Hybrid is the way to go.
If you are stuck in a City, a Hybrid is the way to go.
On the open road, maybe an ICE then makes sense.
Trucks will remain Diesel.
I think the Postal Service's fleet ought to be exclusively electric/hybrid, but they're not yet.
I have an 1.6 litre GM ECOTEC engine, it is amazing on gas, and aluminum.Gas cars are not going away, this electric car thing is a damn fad. I can see Hydrogen or free energy cars before electric takes over.
Looking for investment decisions, invest in lithium mines, all the batteries in cars seem to be lithium ion generated now.
here's description from wikipedia:
Ecotec engines are belt-driven 16-valve DOHC engines, with cast-iron cylinder blocks and aluminum cross-flow cylinder heads. They feature sodium-filled exhaust valves, a cast steel crankshaft, and a spheroidal graphite flywheel. They also feature exhaust gas recirculation (EGR), secondary air injection, and Multec M engine control with sequential multiport fuel injection
Edits: 07/09/17 07/09/17
Zero Point energy cars soon. You can take that to the bank. Sell all carbon fuel stocks!
"The Borg is the ultimate user. They're unlike any threat your Federation has ever faced."
- Q, 2365
"Volvo: Gas-only cars are history after 2019"
Think I read somewhere that they (Volvo) are putting in 48 volt batteries to power certain systems, but will still have an internal comb. engine. But I can't place where I read it.
Agree. This appears to be a way for Volvo to get attention from the press and general public."Volvo: Gas-only cars are history after 2019" doesn't mean Volvo is committed to making All-Electric (EV) vehicles. Commonly available hybrids are still on the table. Yawn.
Edits: 07/10/17
The hybrids will probably win. They are clean and get incredible mileage. The other reason to go electric is maintenance. Apparently the Pious is so immune to breakdown that a number of carpool groups for various agencies started laying off their repair workers. The Pious just goes further on a repair. Overall they might just wind up the cheapest(and quietest) option.
Electric motors in cars makes no sense whatsoever if you live in a region where electricity is generated using fossil fuels. With electric power from fossil fuel being 60-70% efficient, you have to wonder if gas engines in the car itself isn't more efficient.
With a lot of start and stop driving electric cars make a lot of sense, as kinetic energy stored in the vehicle can at least be partially returned to the battery. For long steady state driving it is less clear.
There is no theoretical maximum efficiency for electric motors.
If 60% efficiency can be achieved in a power plant (which would surprise me) I would be surprised if that could be beat with a gasoline engine. Diesel maybe.
Also keep in mind electricity can be generated by renewable resources.
Phil
...There most certainly is a "maximum efficiency" for electric motors: you're not going to exceed 100%. A motor does bypass one of the "laws" of thermodynamics that all heat engines must obey if one chooses to ignore the source of a lot of electricity: heat engines.
I'm way out of my league technically here, but I am told that emissions are much easier to control in a central electric generating plant than in a gaggle of individual cars, which is where the environmental and efficiency gains are supposed to come from.
Happy listening,
Jim
"The passage of my life is measured out in shirts."
- Brian Eno
Great point. I was thinking about making it but you beat me to it. Seems to me that one central source on pollutants would be much easier to deal with, likely less expensive also.
"The Borg is the ultimate user. They're unlike any threat your Federation has ever faced."
- Q, 2365
...to the generally more rural locations of most power plants. A good thing if you're an urban dweller. Maybe not such a good thing if you live in a rural area. I wonder if urban dwellers wield more influence over siting of power plants than do rural dwellers.
. . . I found one site where it was stated that in a typical 4-stroke IC engine:So, if you subtract all these power losses, you'll end up with only 20% of your original total. You can increase this percentage a bit through the use of certain synthetic oils or ceramic coatings on the pistons and combustion chamber.
- 38% of power is lost through exhaust heat
- 36% of power is lost through water heating
- 8% of power is lost through motor friction
As I suspect. Gas motors are just too good these days; makers have worked the power, economy, and anti-pollution designs to great performance standards in the US. And electric is just too new with big shortcomings to instantly push gasoline power out of contention.
That said, a friend stated awhile back that we should drive our current gasoline-engine cars into the ground because we aren't going to get anything on resale of them. He was joking, but maybe a hybrid should be considered as a contender for the next car.
That is a complete laugh. Most internal combustion engined cars that get decent mileage are holding value very well these days.
As far as electric cars?
Google around on a Fiat 500e (an electric vehicle). 2014 models were $30k plus. Those cars are currently selling at auction for about $5k. Yep - lost about 83% of their value in THREE YEARS!
On the other hand, even current generation 'retro look' muscle cars should have pretty good resale a few years out. I'm thinking Mustang, Camaro, Corvette, Charger, Viper, etc. Fiat? ;-)
I'm just waiting to see what the first big bunch of Teslas do when they are out of warranty & the battery packs aren't holding a charge quite like they did when new...
"That said, a friend stated awhile back that we should drive our current gasoline-engine cars into the ground because we aren't going to get anything on resale of them. He was joking, but maybe a hybrid should be considered as a contender for the next car."You might be right about Hybrids depending on your needs.
I think there's severe downward price pressure on used pure EV's because of the significant improvements in range in the newer models. Who wants last year's EV if this year's model has significantly better range? The huge depreciation on EV's will also drive up the cost of a lease. A used EV might be a good buy. A new one is probably the worse in terms of depreciation.
Hybrids may be another story. The yearly improvements are there but more incremental so older models may hold their value a bit better. I haven't really looked at used Hybrid pricing so I'm just guessing.
But from a purely financial standpoint I think it's hard to justify the premium for a Hybrid or EV given today's gas prices. On the other hand, if one is allowed to use the HOV lane on long daily commutes in an EV, that alone might make it worthwhile.
I have friends in CA who were early adopters of Hybrids initially and then pure electric EV cars. They spent several hours a day commuting to and from work on congested freeways. The Hybrid (early on) and later with EV's allowed them to use the HOV lane.
Edits: 07/09/17
:-)!
Life of battery performance.
In cold places it's not long for gas car batteries. I can't see it being LONG for lithium batteries, either.
Warmest
Tim Bailey
Skeptical Measurer & Audio Scrounger
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