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RE: Only one serious film, the rest are entertainment. Easy choice:
Posted by RGA on March 20, 2022 at 18:01:16:
The academy now has a more diverse voting membership.
"Who votes for the Oscars, and who are the Academy's members? The answer, historically, has been almost exclusively white men. According to a 2014 survey conducted by The Los Angeles Times, Oscar voters were on average 63 years old. 76% of them were men, and 94% of them were white."
The voting is like Stereophile though - the voters choose their favourites in order so 1,2,3.
The problem with that is that points are awarded for 2nd and 3rd votes so it is possible that nobody chose the best picture winner as the best picture but everyone chose it as the third-best movie. Meanwhile, 1/2 the academy voters could choose a movie as the best film but maybe 1/4 chose it last (because they found it too violent or had foul language (lots of old geezers are religious nuts and have old-fashioned views of the world).
So polarizing original films are likely not going to win.
Anyway - The films I like almost never win as a result so to me it's just some entertainment - And sometimes they'll choose something I like even if it's not my first choice - I'd be happy if CODA snuck in for the win.
CODA is not particularly ambitious in scope (coming of age story of trying to get away from the small town to make something of yourself) - it's been done a million times but CODA at least does it very well and better than most and has a terrific supporting actor performance. It could win if it is chosen in 2nd or 3rd on most lists.
Drive My car probably has no chance since they recently chose Parasite and Drive My car may lose votes for editing - at 3 hours will members have the patience - on the other hand, it is about actors, the theatre and is quite literary - reading up on Chekhov, and Beckett is helpful and most actors are literature types. The film itself is like bringing the audience inside Waiting for Godot and that duality is impressive - and has big emotional payoffs.
To me, it's clearly the best film but it's also an "art-house" film where "art-house" films rarely win.
Drive My Car won with the critics - Best film from
New York Film Critics Circle
Boston Film Critics Society
Los Angeles Film Critics
National Society of Film Critics
Toronto Film Critics
Seattle Film Critics
CODA is more of a Hollywood entertainment but IMO one of the better Hollywood entertainments. Even King Richard was well done with Will Smith - I am not the least bit of a tennis fan either but I found it a charmer about Venus and Serena Williams.
But it's likely going to be Power of the Dog. *SPOILER* It too is an "art-house" movie but I also found it lightweight and the "gay" payoff just isn't that relevant today - like so what. And other than that payoff there is little here. A mean cowboy being mean to a gay farmhand who all the while is gay just isn't enough to base an entire movie around. And NOTHING else happens - It's not like the dialogue is interesting in the way to Drive My Car is. Jane Campion is well-liked and they may be trying to give her this award for The Piano.
I was hoping for a female director but I would have given it to Julia Ducournau for Titane which is better than 9 of the 10 Academy-nominated films IMO.