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From the horse's mouth

71.203.126.20

Posted on August 13, 2022 at 12:10:43
Victor Khomenko
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First of all, anyone interested in the current situation in Ukraine MUST know this name and person behind it:

"Igor Vsevolodovich Girkin (Russian: И́горь Все́володович Ги́ркин, IPA: [ˈiɡərʲ ˈfsʲevələdəvʲɪtɕ ˈɡʲirkʲɪn]; born 17 December 1970),[1] also known by the alias Igor Ivanovich Strelkov (Russian: И́горь Ива́нович Стрелко́в, IPA: [ˈiɡərʲ ɪˈvanəvʲɪtɕ strʲɪlˈkof]), is a Russian army veteran and former Federal Security Service (FSB) officer who played a key role in the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation, and later the war in Donbas as an organizer of militant groups in the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR).[2][3][4] Girkin led a group of militants into Ukraine where he participated in the 2014 Siege of Sloviansk. During the battle he increased his influence and ultimately became the de facto military commander of all separatist forces in the Donbas region, which was confirmed by the "prime minister" Alexander Borodai of the DPR who appointed him as official Defense Minister."

Girking lately has become critical of the way russia conducted the operation, making many very, very critical statements.

Here is his latest video, where he in plain russian states that the so-called "special military operation" has completely... and he emphasizes it: COMPLETELY failed.


 

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Nice Confederate flag behind him . . . , posted on August 13, 2022 at 12:18:32
Billy Wonka
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What's Russkie for "Yeeeeeehad"?

 

I guess he is now coming to Texas, posted on August 13, 2022 at 12:21:35
Victor Khomenko
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To lead its separatist forces. :)

However, this is the flag of Novorossia


 

RE: From the horse's mouth, posted on August 13, 2022 at 13:42:57
bjh
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Big wip! Some of that deep insight some attribute to your 'reports' ??

The guy appears one of those minor political figures of some notoriety, bad mouths the gov't from time to time to create pretext of open society, pure theatre.

Pretty inconsequential peddling internal Russian gossip - pfft


 

RE: From the horse's mouth, posted on August 13, 2022 at 14:31:45
tweaker456
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"Ongoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson also agreed to train up to 10,000 Ukrainian troops every 120 days."




So let us stop talkin' falsely now, the hour's getting late --
Robert Allen Zimmerman

 

Their artillery fire volume has dropped..., posted on August 13, 2022 at 14:50:51
Victor Khomenko
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Posts: 55313
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...and is now several times lower.

Part of the reason is the successful attacks on ammo depots, but they are also running out of replacement barrels, many of which already exceeded their service life. There have already been some pictures of their guns with blown up barrels - something that can happen when the bore is too worn out.

Some of their artillery, such as the large 203mm Pion, has never been know for its accuracy, and now they are just good as terror weapons.


 

A few of Putin's lackeys jumping ship, eh? Not many... n/t, posted on August 13, 2022 at 15:37:08
vacuous
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Remember, how just a few months ago..., posted on August 13, 2022 at 15:56:22
Victor Khomenko
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...the discussions revolved around the "Who's going to win"? question. My answer to that has been consistent.

Today most people agree that the Ukraine victory is all but assured, so the question has shifted to "What shape is it going to take?"

I wish I knew the answer to that one, but it is a very interesting mental exercise.


 

The ferocity of Ukrainian resistance stunned even the experts., posted on August 13, 2022 at 17:00:15
vacuous
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At the start of the war almost everybody thought it would be a quick Russian roll-over. Including me. When the Russian army was expelled from north of Kiev? Then I knew Ukraine could prevail. But only with a steady supply of advanced-tech Western arms. Those home-made molotov cocktails seen in so many video clips were not gonna stop Russian tanks.

Now it's live free or die for Ukrainians. They are all in; no way will they settle for anything less than complete expulsion of Russian military from their territory. Their morale as seen in almost every video and interview is unrelentingly strong. Morale for the Russian armed forces, in contrast, is abysmal. They have taken high casualties, supply lines are poor or failing, and they are losing faith in leadership at the top.

For Putin? I disagree with a point you made some two months ago. You said that it's a Soviet tradition to retire leaders quietly. But for this military fiasco I don't think so. This war has drained the Russian economy, killed tens of thousands of Russian men, and damaged both diplomacy and trade. I expect the Putin regime to crack. What it gets replaced with I don't know. Regime change is always messy with brutal autocrats.


 

According to NYT russia is losing up to 500 killed a day, posted on August 13, 2022 at 18:32:02
Victor Khomenko
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No country can sustain such losses.

There is still big question about the isolated group on the right bank. Everyone is hoping it is going to sit idle, being gradually reduced to just a few thousands of prisoners.

That would be an ideal outcome, but I suspect the russians are determined not to let this happen. One way of preventing this is by making those troops advance, to push the Ukrainians far enough from Dnepr, so the supplies could be re-established.

They already tried advancing, no luck so far, but 30,000 troops is not something you can just ignore, so the Ukrainians must be very, very careful with that armada.

If you ask me I do hope putin gets torn apart piece by piece, but I suspect that is not going to happen. When the situation gets too hot he is going to fly into exile - there are many countries that will take him, considering his enormous wealth.


 

Right! Putin flees to North Korea! That'd work! , posted on August 13, 2022 at 19:05:06
vacuous
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Maybe Iran? Nope. They mostly want relief from Western sanctions. China? Same story; China would be sanctioned and lose lucrative markets in the West. Venezuela? Not secure enough; Putin would be hunted down. Similar stories across the globe.

So sad! Your forecast of a comfy retirement for Putin looks increasingly unlikely.

 

You can't compare Trotsky's exile with putin's, posted on August 14, 2022 at 05:18:39
Victor Khomenko
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Trotsky was just a poor schmuck living privately, relying on good will of locals.

Putin can buy the whole city, establish his large and dedicated private army and buy tremendous influence over local politicians, basically creating a putinland within a state, with its own structures, airports, bank and everything else. It would not be another Osama with one shitty building.


 

RE: You can't compare Trotsky's exile with putin's, posted on August 14, 2022 at 05:28:31
Story
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sounds like we can only wish for someone to plunge an icepick into his head



 

Good video to see and hear HIMARS in action:, posted on August 14, 2022 at 17:12:40
vacuous
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Location: Corvallis, Oregon
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