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Some of the smart guys into forecasting think maybe.
Including Youyang Gu whose web site is linked below: His models have been blowing away the University of Washington model of late.
Here in New Mexico daily cases are finally dropping, having peaked about a week ago. Deaths still on the rise having doubled in the last three weeks but hospitalization are starting to drop, having peaked about 12 days ago, which is a great sign.
Follow Ups:
Most blue states were infected and most teachers are liberal - so if they die - why would 45 or his supporters care?
White House Abandoned National Testing Because Virus Hit Blue States Hardest
Edits: 08/05/20
Wait for 2 weeks after Sturgis.
The nature of the math can lead us to most any conclusion, We are correlating several parameters -- positives, various symptoms, hospital cases, deaths, age and other demographic groups, bubble hotspots, and varying restrictions trying to squeeze the hose.
Formulas with all these variants can look like anything when forecasted at and to any particular time. We've seen by now that the ebbs and flows are not leading to a singular conclusion. IMO, we will start being able to do that when a vaccine comes on line.
to evaluate the various models and folks doing the models.
Turns out some are better that others and Youyang Gu's model has pretty much beat out the rest.
His model even seems to be working here in New Mexico where cases are down (OK, just the last few days) but deaths are still rising.
not get out the party favors, yet. Yeah, new cases have begun to go down, 5% in the past two weeks, but in that same period, deaths are up SIXTY percent.
And, in states that previously had apparently gotten the crisis under control, cases are trending up.
No centralized plan, no possible victory. I'd argue that's pretty basic common sense. Maybe not in today's America.
Cases, lead to hospitalizations which lead to deaths with a couple of weeks between each.
Also, younger cases mean fewer hospitalizations and fewer fatalities so...
Guessing MIT guy Youyang Gu can model.
cases are beginning to surge in states that had shown containment. It's bizarre to speak of hope when deaths are surging SIXTY PERCENT (2 week trend).
Yes, that's how it works.
Cases lead to hospitalizations which lead to deaths.
Before deaths can drop, cases have to drop.
The daily death toll (7 day moving average) here in New Mexico has DOUBLED in the last three weeks, from 3.1 to 6.2.
But cases are falling, at least they are for the last few days.
Hoping deaths will start falling a a few weeks as well.
planning and compliance occurs.
Florida's July COVID spike: graph above shows cases dropping faster in FL than just about anywhere else in the U.S.
Graph below shows the opposite with deaths.
Source, link below:
Well, it is around here, and in our neighboring state of PA, but that's because we've taken a step backwards and reinstated most of the restrictions imposed during our previous reopening phase. If people take the same attitude toward reopening (again) as restrictions are lifted (again), the results will be the same (again)--that whole "definition of insanity" thing--repeating the same behavior/actions and expecting a different outcome? Only this time around, we will be further complicating matters with the potential reopening of schools.
Until the "boneheads" realize that wearing a mask IS a good idea, and that "partying like a rock star" is NOT, the cycle will just repeat itself (again).
"Well he's a friend of them long haired hippy-type, pinko fags! I'll bet you he's even got a commie flag, tacked up on the wall inside of his garage"--Uneasy Rider--the late Charlie Daniels, 1973
Again.
"Once this was all Black Plasma and Imagination" -Michael McClure
Not from what I hear. But then I gave up on CNN a few weeks ago so maybe.
No amount of evidence will ever persuade an idiot
-Mark Twain
A wise decision! ;-)
What part of this do you disagree with?
nt
"Bass is the place..the rest is filigree and lace" Doug Sax
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