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Possible reason California's low numbers.
Study investigates if COVID-19 came to Calif. in fall 2019
If so, the state may have built up some herd immunity
MONTEREY, Calif. - Researchers at Stanford Medicine are working to find out what proportion of Californians have already had COVID-19. The new study could help policymakers make more informed decisions during the coronavirus pandemic.
The team tested 3,200 people at three Bay Area locations on Saturday using an antibody test for COVID-19 and expect to release results in the coming weeks. The data could help to prove COVID-19 arrived undetected in California much earlier than previously thought.
The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.
Follow Ups:
In addition to the Stanford study, USC and the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health are starting a pilot test for coronavirus antibodies in LA County residents.
The tests of 1,000 adults will take place at six drive-through sites throughout the county.
The goal is to determine how many people in the county were already exposed to COVID-19, to get a more accurate picture of how far the virus has spread beyond the current testing of those who are showing symptoms. The test participants have already been selected and the first tests begin Friday and Saturday.
It's possible there were many small outbreaks all over the country and the sickness and death associated with other things. In fact maybe it was 1:2.5 contagious when it left the West Coast to China but had mutated to 1:5.7 contagious by the time it arrived in Europe from China.Ie. China is blamed because they were astute enough to recognize there was a virus by the dummies who completely missed it?
I have no idea what the truth is though I know the truth will end up being a politically convenient one.
Edits: 04/09/20
There's many efforts underway to build the virus' family tree by tracing mutations. Yesterday, the other Dave (from Cleveland) posted a link to a free NYT article that gave a nice summary of some of the research. If that's interesting, there's more to be found via Google.
So far, everything they've found strengthens the prevailing theory that the virus originated in Chinese horseshoe bats and jumped over to humans near Wuhan through an uncertain path. They're also helping to confirm the suspected timeline of virus spread out of Wuhan and around the West.
In time, I'm very confident the history of its genome will disprove the conspiracy theories. But I'm sure that the people promoting the conspiracy theories (including the Chinese government) will ignore that and keep on promoting them. Conspiracy theories only take root in people who didn't want to know or accept the truth in the first place.
"In time, I'm very confident the history of its genome will disprove the conspiracy theories. But I'm sure that the people promoting the conspiracy theories (including the Chinese government) will ignore that and keep on promoting them. Conspiracy theories only take root in people who didn't want to know or accept the truth in the first place."
Well, said and I agree 100%. I would also like to add that "Money making" is involved as well.
The number of books to be written based on half baked conspiracy theories over the next decade is going to be enormous.
People made livings making up so many crocked theories on the Kennedy assassination, Roswell and the Pyramids....which will be the roadmap for many so called disease experts and heard it from a hidden source.
Thanks for the comment.
What conspiracy theories do you think need to be disproved?
Try this on for size:
"And what I read about it was they actually provided the name of the American, in a group of Americans, they thought brought it over. I've yet to hear the results of that persons testing or of the group being tested. It was the Military War Games held in China in October 2019. I can't find the name of the individual but we could find the group and test them if we were acting in good faith." - Goober58
The search for truth being labelled as a conspiracy theory by those conspiring to cover it up. Strangely why someone would want to cover up the source of the virus or the Russians meddling in American elections is what's most interesting.Honest I have little interest in partisan politics.
Edits: 04/10/20 04/10/20 04/10/20
"Honest I have little interest in partisan politics."
Hmmm.
Aren't you the one who introduced partisan politics into the discussion with your statement "Strangely why someone would want to cover up the source of the virus or the Russians meddling in American elections is what's most interesting." ?
"The search for truth being labelled as a conspiracy theory by those conspiring to cover it up."
Apparently, by your logic, the following are conspiring to cover up the search for truth by labeling it as a conspiracy theory:
From https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Military_World_Games - "After the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic, conspiracy theories about COVID-19 attributing the virus' creation to the CIA emerged[27]. Some articles on popular sites in Chinese have accused American athletes participating in the Wuhan Military World Games to have deployed the virus."
From https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/04/china-fake-news-coronavirus-164652 - "On March 4, the People's Daily reprint of this article was used as the basis for a piece published on conspiracy website GlobalResearch.ca, titled "China's Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus Originate in the US?" It was the first of two articles on the website that would lead to Zhao's tweet nine days later suggesting the U.S. Army had brought the virus to Wuhan."
BTW per Wikipedia: "The People's Daily is the largest newspaper group in China. The paper is an official newspaper of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, ..."
I could go on and on with references to this being labeled a conspiracy theory by many sources (with sources being of differing political affiliation), just Google "conspiracy theory suggests that US athletes participating in the 7th Military World Games that were held in Wuhan in October 2019 brought the covid-19 coronavirus" for more.
The same Google search will easily yield results which counter your statement that "For whatever it's worth and for clarity I don't think anyone is attempting to cover up the source of the virus."
Just test the athletes and let's get on with it.It's not a conspiracy theory to suggest a US athlete may have brought the virus to China.
It is a conspiracy theory to suggest the virus was intentionally introduced to China by the US. For me it would be much easier to believe that China sent the virus to the US to weaken the US as a global power but it's just a theory**.
But when it comes to the source of the virus I'm not interested in any national or global politics - it should be a shared purely scientific ambition among trading partners and allies. For me anyone resisting that is suspicious.
I didn't mean to detract from the point of this conversation with what to me was a clear and obvious example. I must remember the various realities folks live within in today's world.
**But with a game show host as President who probably can't find Taiwan on a globe and the State Department in shambles it might be irresistible.
Edits: 04/10/20 04/10/20 04/10/20 04/10/20
"The best defense is a strong offense response is very overused in politics these days." Are you simply projecting intent onto others?
"**But with a game show host as President who probably can't find Taiwan on a globe and the State Department in shambles it might be irresistible."
For someone who claims "Honest I have little interest in partisan politics." , you sure seem to be unable to resist introducing politics into your multiple comments.
I was just saying that it was called a conspiracy theory by many, which it definitely was.
"It is a conspiracy theory to suggest the virus was intentionally introduced to China by the US."
Well, it WAS suggested that the "virus was intentionally introduced to China by the US", hence, based on your criteria, the use of the term "conspiracy theory" is appropriate.
From the Wikipedia page "Misinformation related to the 2019-20 coronavirus pandemic" (link below):
"According to London-based The Economist, plenty of conspiracy theories exist on China's internet about COVID-19 being the CIA's creation to keep China down. NBC News however has noted that there have also been debunking efforts of US-related conspiracy theories posted online, with a WeChat search of "Coronavirus is from the U.S." reported to mostly yield articles explaining why such claims are unreasonable. According to an investigation by ProPublica, such conspiracy theories and disinformation have been propagated under the direction of China News Service, the country's second largest state-owned media outlet controlled by the United Front Work Department. Global Times and Xinhua News Agency have similarly been implicated in propagating disinformation related to COVID-19's origins.
Multiple conspiracy articles in Chinese from the SARS era resurfaced during the outbreak with altered details, claiming that SARS is biological warfare conducted by the US against China. Some of these articles claim that BGI Group from China sold genetic information of the Chinese people to the US, with the US then being able to deploy the virus specifically targeting the genome of Chinese individuals.
On January 26, Chinese military news site Xilu published an article detailing how the virus was artificially combined by the US to "precisely target Chinese people". The article was removed after early February.
Some articles on popular sites in China have also cast suspicion on US military athletes participating in the Wuhan 2019 Military World Games, which lasted until the end of October 2019, and have suggested that they deployed the virus. They claim the inattentive attitude and disproportionately below-average results of American athletes in the games indicate they might have been there for other purposes and they might actually be bio-warfare operatives. Such posts stated that their place of residence during their stay in Wuhan was also close to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, where the first known cluster of cases occurred.
In March 2020, this conspiracy theory was endorsed by Zhao Lijian, a spokesperson from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China."
" For someone who claims "Honest I have little interest in partisan politics." , you sure seem to be unable to resist introducing politics into your multiple comments. "Relative to the point of the discussion on finding the source of Covid19 which was the point of the thread - I have no interest in conspiracy theories or partisan politics.
You could post links to endless conspiracy theories. I didn't disagree. I didn't however agree that it was impossible for the US Military team to have introduced the virus (intentionally or not). Seems an easy enough solution to test the athletes to appease an ally and trading partner so we/they can get to work finding the origin.
I tried to explain why I thought the Chinese would be spewing such fairy tales by suggesting they had actually sent the virus to America and were pulling the kind of cover ups we regularly see in American politics. Apparently you took offense but I think that's much more likely than the US intentionally feeding the virus to them.
I am unable to resist taking a dig at the person who I believe is the single biggest threat to America in the history of the nation (well there was another guy way back when who was selling the country off if I am not mistaken). I can't help myself and admit it.
Edits: 04/10/20 04/10/20
and they're sticking to it.
OTOH, their credibility these days is no better than that of our current leadership, so who knows?
But as this virus seems to mutate, albeit slowly, at a pretty predictable rate, its origins shouldn't be to difficult to figure out.
And what I read about it was they actually provided the name of the American, in a group of Americans, they thought brought it over. I've yet to hear the results of that persons testing or of the group being tested. It was the Military War Games held in China in October 2019. I can't find the name of the individual but we could find the group and test them if we were acting in good faith.
Edits: 04/09/20
"... I have no idea what the truth is though I know the truth will end up being a politically convenient one. ..."
Do you think Standford Medical University has a political agenda ?
Here's what I found on their site on the origin of Covid19. Maybe you have something else to add.
I am anxious to see the results of their 3,200 tests.
.
nt
If the virus did arrive in California before anywhere else in the country, why didn't the outbreaks start earlier in California?And if it did arrive there first, why weren't the outbreaks WORSE in California, if nobody was doing anything to track or contain it for months?
How can you have any herd immunity without infecting a large percentage of the population?
How does testing someone TODAY tell you when the virus first arrived? A person with antibodies now could have been first exposed just a week ago.
Finally, why are we using 3200 tests for this when there are test shortages all over the country? (EDIT: never mind, it turns out they're not even using the one antibody test the FDA authorized)
Stop chasing false hopes.
Edits: 04/09/20
The reported California "flu deaths" in January doubled.
Maybe a portion of those "flu deaths" were wrongly attributed.
Mr. K, you are spot on.
Herd Immunity is based on large numbers having and surviving OR being vaccinated.
Neither could have been true UNLESS something is weird in the California Resident Genome......
Too much is never enough
she met w/ Chinese businessmen late November and early December, and was hospitalized w/ severe pneumonia in mid December.
Because she's immune compromised, she hunkered down at home while sick and wore a mask when she was out - to keep from catching something else, too. She likely had it, and through happenstance took precautions from spreading it.
NT
...and might explain a strangely mild flu-like ailment I experienced in late Nov 2019. Some friends and acquaintances experienced the same thing from that time thru Feb 2020. I live in the Detroit area and there are (were) tons of people traveling to and from China every day for the auto industry thru Detroit's Metro Airport. I was probably exposed via some of those friends that still work for the domestic three in engineering and management positions. So yes, I might be free and clear of covid-19........
Oh, wait, the article cites the world renown pandemic and immunology expert Victor Davis Hanson of the Hoover Institute as support for the "early exposure" theory. Bet he consults with Peter Navarro, an expert in the field of drug development and efficacy. OK, there are lab antibody results showing covid positives but no data regarding date of infection. Hmmmmm! And then Hanson states "It's going to allow us to get back to normal much more quickly....." . Hmmmmmm!!!! Could there be an agenda here? This all begins to look like a concerted covert effort to support His Worship's back-to-work policies. Color me really skeptical of this "early infection/way more are immune than we thought" narrative esp since verification will require massive public antibody testing regimes that are months away from being realized.
Known as Hall Monitor Pete, back in the day.
Sapiens, My Ass
Otoh, the earlier start date might cloud the origin question giving credence to rumors in China that the virus was brought there by US citizens.
...if so the questions become 1. Did the US intentionally infect China or was it incidental 2. If the US "did it", why is the US #1 by far in infections.I'm more inclined to believe it's a secretive strategy by the Trilateral Commission, the Davos crowd and the Bilderbergers to begin reducing world population to sustainable levels. First to go are the non-productive and resource intensive elements of society.
Edits: 04/09/20
Here's one for ya. Trump knows hydroxychloriquine works because it's his virus created and deployed to win the trade war, but in true Trump fashion it blew up in his face. (No, I don't really believe that, yet.)
...I'm sure His Worship is megadosing on hydroxychloroquine as we speak. This explains why he recommends everyone use a mask in public but he won't be wearing one anytime soon.
The Huff Post's crack investigation team discovered His Worship was heavily invested in the company that makes hydroxychloroquine and stands to make a mint off of worldwide sales.
Their team, in full disclosure went onto say that Trump's investments were made through his trust and that the trust had bought mutual funds which in part contained said HQ stocks (I am sure it was to distance and obfuscate the purchases). His huge capital investing into the drug company was reported to be somewhere between $100 and $1,500 US. Damn, he cornered the market with those billionaire buy ins.
I'm not a fan but try to filter what you read from any publication with a political bent.
his top medical advisers and the overwhelming majority of experts say its waaaay too early to judge whether the drug is efficacious? Like Trump, I have no proof, but I suspect some Fox News propagandist "heard something" because "a lot of people are talking about it" and told Trump.
A sane president would simply say something like "There is some anecdotal evidence that treatment with the drug has helped some people infected with the virus, but we are a long way from knowing if in fact its something we should be using on a widespread basis."
There are many life threatening diseases. Would you really want a president who touts unproven drugs for cancer?
nt
.
...how this completely discredited conspiracy theory is relevant to His Worship's advocacy of hydroxychloroquine and his position on face masks or at a higher level, what it has to do with early and massive unrecognized covid-19 infection and immunity in CA and elsewhere?
Edits: 04/09/20
...I believe His Worship sincerely believes that hydroxychloroquine is the silver bullet that saves America and his presidential candidacy. There certainly are a lot of anecdotal positive-outcome testimonials. But unless the stuff is 100% effective, there should be negative and indeterminate outcomes. Where is the reporting on them?
Huff Post got the goods on him.
Did you read their article ???
Trumpy is market positioned to make 10's of $$$ if it takes off.
"... I believe His Worship sincerely believes that hydroxychloroquine is the silver ..."
If you cleaned out your ear wax, you would have heard him clearly say it may or may NOT work, but it shouldn't be ignored when doctors from around the world are reporting favorable results.
Clearly, you lack the ability to understand the true meaning of words as delivered by a living human (I think). i.e.Non-verbal, "reading between the lines", etc. Thou shalt not worship false gods.
Simple, Huff Post is doing their best do diligence to vet the POTUS and "EXPOSE" the Orange Bad Man's self serving motives for pushing an anti-malarial drug for CV. After all, he is not a doctor and doesn't receive any information from the worlds top medical advisors.You know he has to have a personal financial interest for suggesting such remedies, it is the only explanation for "His Worship's" actions.
READ IT AT THE HUFF POST:
Edits: 04/09/20
Didn't Novartis, the maker of this drug, once give Michael Cohen $1,200,000 for "access" to His Worship Cockwomble?
So his ONLY financial interest is some mutual funds? And you believe that?
The Huff Post published the article, so it must be true.
Edits: 04/09/20
I think the implied point was that if the timeline shifts, then the origin must be re-evaluated.
If the starting point on the timeline is pushed back in time, then the origin story must be revised as well which, in turn, provides opportunities for conspiracy theories (like the one I made up and posted above). In this age of misinformation, I think we need to get ready for many outlandish claims.
Look up any pandemic and you'll find conflicting expert opinions on origin and especially "patient zero". Origin and patient zero are important early on for not only understanding the virus, but also stopping the spread stone cold. Once the spread starts, however, origin and "patient zero" become secondary to slowing the spread and treating patients. It may be next year or the year after before researchers are able to release their findings on origin and patient zero, maybe longer if the timeline shifts.
"... I think the implied point was that if the timeline shifts, then the origin must be re-evaluated. ..."
I have no doubt that would be true if it is discovered the West coast had it last fall. With California being the gateway to China (2 major international airports and sea ports), the transmission path is there and the local population would be the first exposed.
The Huff Post article comment was to feed @Steve O's chronic TDS affliction. They go to great lengths to find potential 10's of $$$ to convict a billionaire in the MSM.
I get it. I'm no trump fan, but imo, the use of the malaria drug should be between my doctor and me. If there's some legal impediment to my doctor's using it in my treatment when he/she thinks it might work, then I'll get upset. It's not prohibited at this point.
I don't put much stock in a politician's hunch on medical treatment. Trump does need to be careful with his words when talking about a specific medical treatment without accepted science to back it up. This country is full of easily confused people. Other than that minor complaint, I don't see an issue as of yet. If it turns out to be successful, that's great. But if Jared is in charge of doling out the pills - well, I probably won't qualify.
"... the use of the malaria drug should be between my doctor and me. ..."
What happened to all of the "My Body, My Choice" crowd ?
I personally agree the goverment is not required in the doctor's office. I want to know what my options are and insist on making my own choices and living by the consequences.
Through several reports, including our own intelligence, the timeline is being moved farther into the past.
A coroner in my state recently stated that she is now suspicious of a surge in deaths caused by "severe pneumonia" earlier this year.
...all along, there have been scattered (and quickly silenced) reports out of China of an unexplained, but significant number of pneumonia-like illnesses/fatalities as early as the beginning of October of last year. This was the beginning of the "lying and denying" campaign initiated by the CCP. Acknowledgement of the outbreak and identification of the potential source pathogen were not released until the very end of December.It would make sense that because of the amount of travel to and from China, that many people in WA and CA were indeed infected and recovered long before the beginning of this year, and/or fatalities just attributed to pneumonia or influenza.
Life has become immeasurably better since I have been forced to stop taking it seriously--HST
Edits: 04/09/20
California has a lot of direct international flights to and from Wuhan as well as China in general. Direct conduit for the virus to travel.
After the Covid-19 outbreak was declared to be a pandemic and having had a mild flu for just a few days in the second week of February, I've been wondering if Covid-19 was in the states for a longer time than previously thought. (This is the first and only time I've ever had a "mild" flu.)I'm looking forward to having an antibody test once available and hoping that I test positive and have some immunity.
Edits: 04/08/20
...a while back--like at least a month ago. I had a brief spell where I was just a little off my game (health-wise), but living in a cold winter climate, that is just typical for the season--especially this year, with it's bizarre temp swings (literally a 40 degree change day to day).
I too, look forward to an available antibody test for verification. It certainly would reduce my level of paranoia.
Life has become immeasurably better since I have been forced to stop taking it seriously--HST
NT
I can hear the California haters now!
Edits: 04/08/20
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