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In Reply to: I think this is about hi-rez movies (nt) posted by Metralla on February 11, 2007 at 07:39:07:
and Blu ray is likely to become a mainstream music format.For the MTV generation, music and picture goes together. And before that TV make both Elvis and the Beatles great stars.
Fans allways want to see the stars. Sales of DVDs with music have been growing for a long time.
Follow Ups:
< < Blu ray is likely to become a mainstream music format. > >Where in the world do you come up with this stuff?
Two years ago the music industry was in a panic because CD sales were down 10%. But do a little bit of math before you make silly statements. There are nearly 1,000,000,000 CD players world-wide. Which is, oh, only about 1000 times as many CD players as compared to Blu-Ray players.
So if you are trying to sell music discs, do you think it would make more sense to release a CD (with a billion potential customers), or a Blu-Ray (with a million potential customers)?
We've already seen this same scenario play out with SACD and DVD-A. "Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." Get a clue.
effects of crack cocaine so well as you must do, to make that statement :-)The fact remain that while CD sales went down, sales of DVDs with music went up.
You did not like SACD, but now you make a SACD player. SACD did not get mainstream. So why do you make it?
But Blu ray can become mainstream because large flat TVs are now mainstream, and they need a source.
When Ayre makes a Blu ray player, you should give me one and say "damn it, I was wrong again."The GamuT SACD prototype player was based on the Philips SACD 1000, so for obvious reasons that was not released.
< < The fact remain that while CD sales went down, sales of DVDs with music went up. > >Don't confuse correlation with cause. CD sales went down because people didn't like the new music releases, or they were downloading MP3's or both. Not because they were switching to "DVDs with music".
< < You did not like SACD > >
Huh? Where did you come up with that idea? It's not a very good format for modern recording techniques, as any mixing or effects requires conversion to PCM. But it makes sense as a way to distribute high-resolution digital copies of analog source tapes.
< < now you make a SACD player. SACD did not get mainstream. So why do you make it? > >
You may not have noticed, but Ayre is not a "mainstream" product. We make it because the hard-core audience we serve wants it. The difference between Ayre and the other high-end manufacturers is two-fold:
a) We waited to introduce a multi-format player until the price premium over a CD-only player was reasonable -- on the order of 20% or so.
b) We offered the product that most audiophiles wanted -- two channels only, with no video.
< < But Blu ray can become mainstream > >
Uh, let me clue you in on something. Higher performance at a higher price is *not* a recipe for mainstream success. If it were, Ferrari would be the biggest car company in the world.
< < When Ayre makes a Blu ray player, you should give me one and say "damn it, I was wrong again." > >
If Ayre makes a Blu-ray player, you will be saying, "damn it, Ayre was right again." The only reason we would do so would be because it would serve our customers. In other words, we will not make an expensive piece of hardware to play a dead-end format. So if it turns out that Blu-ray is not a dead-end, or if we can make one for a very small price premium over a DVD player, then we will do so.
Making a high-end Blu-ray player now would be stupid. It would require that your customers shell out thousands and thousands of dollars for the privilege of playing a handful of discs. Why not wait a year or two to see which format (if either) survives, and also for the technology to mature so that a higher level of performance can be offered for a much lower price? That's what we did with our multi-format audio player, and both we and our customers are happy with that decision.
and not much more than DVD players cost some years ago, adjusting for inflation.Mainstream buyers see PS3 as a good deal, a DVD player, a game console, and a Blu ray player in one box for USD 499.
re CD sales, I have designed recording studios and sold
equipment to replicators, so I know that business a bit better than you do.Please read your old SACD posts, from the time, when you did not make a SACD player.
You can argue all you want, but your motives are clearly to sell Ayres current products.
< < USD 499 for the cheapest SONY PS3 is hardly Ferrari prices ! > >Not to you, maybe. But to the normal consumer it is. They can buy a DVD player for less than $50. The cheapest Blu-Ray player cost 10x as much. Most mainstream DVD titles are selling for $12 to $15 in this country. Blu-Ray titles cost 2x to 3x as much. For a normal person, this is like deciding that instead of buying a $30,000 car, they should instead buy something that costs $300,000 because it offers higher performance. And instead of paying $2 a gallon for gas (yes, I know that is absurdly cheap by world standards) that their new $300,000 car requires special fuel that cost $4 to $6 per gallon.
< < Please read your old SACD posts, from the time, when you did not make a SACD player. > >
I think it's you that needs to read them (link below). You seem to be either suffering from selective memory or senility. Here are some examples of what I actually said in that thread:
"I'm not sure that it makes sense to pay an extra $3000 for the capability to play only a handful of discs." (Kind of like the situation today for making a high-end Blu-ray player, no?)
"But none of this will change the problem with software availability. The fact remains that it is distinctly unprofitable for any major software company to release titles in the new formats." (Kind of like the situation today for Blu-ray software, no?)
"Another problem is that when we introduce a product, we would like it to have some level of longevity, say three or more years. I'm not at all sure that any of the current SACD manufacturing kits will still be available in three years. Either they would be discontinued altogether, or they would typically be replaced by cheaper ones that would require a redesign of our product." (That is something that you would have been well-served to pay more attention to when you were at Gamut. Instead of putting all of your eggs into the Philips basket and getting screwed in the process, you could have noticed all of the other companies that put their eggs into Philips basket [both SACD and CD] and got screwed.)
But since you are so keen on Blu-ray, why don't you put your money where your mouth is? Why don't you go ahead and introduce a high-end Blu-ray player? Since you are so sure that I'm wrong, I guess you'll be laughing all the way to the bank. So go ahead, prove me wrong.
Your SACD statements still make a negative impression on me, so maybe you need to study writing :-)For small High End electronics companies, the recent years have been difficult, with CE, SACD, Rohs, WEEE, class D and now Blu ray.
Not to mention new versions of HDMI, and the yearly fees.Because I sold GamuT in 2003, I live happily without the above, so you cannot tempt me :-)
You ignore, that the SONY PS3 is a game console. USD 50 DVD players do not play games.
A relevant alternative would be the much praised oppo DVD multiformat player at USD 149 and a X-box 360 game console at USD 299. Total USD 448 versus SONY PS3 at USD 499.
This is the choice consumers make today. And for the many millions of owners of many PS2 games at USD 50 for each game, the choice is clearly SONY PS3, because it can play their old games.
This is the reality of mainstream today.SONY can sell PS3 at a loss, because SONY get money from the game companies.
< < Your SACD statements still make a negative impression on me > >I guess the truth hurts.
< < A relevant alternative would be the much praised oppo DVD multiformat player at USD 149 and a X-box 360 game console at USD 299. Total USD 448 > >
That might be relevant if normal people that bought DVD players cared about SACD or DVD-Audio, or wanted to buy a game console at the same time. But in general, that's not the case. Your example would be like comparing a car with a navigation system to a car without a navigation system plus a separate navigation system. For those small percentage of buyers that need it, it would make sense. But that is not the vast majority of purchasers.
< < SONY can sell PS3 at a loss, because SONY get money from the game companies. > >
Actually Sony *has* to sell the PS3 at a loss because it would be completely unsaleable at $1000. So they have no choice. What remains to be seen is how long they can continue to lose money. I think it will be many years before their manufacturing costs come down to the point where they stop losing money. We'll see how long they have the stomach for bleeding. Don't forget that Sony stopped selling SACDs because they got tired of losing money.
no matter how you want to avoid it, a game consoles that play Blu ray and DVD is worth much more than a DVD player to a lot of people.Your argument about USD 50 for a DVD player versus USD 499 for a SONY PS3 is simply wrong.
My math teacher said it this way: The price of the apple do not matter, when you want to buy and eat a coconut.Similar a DVD player cannot be sold to people, who want a game console.
You also fail to understand how much money SONY made on the PS2.
It gave SONY about 50% of the total company buttom line.
So SONY have a very good reason to stay committed to PS3.Secondly the profit comes via the games companies.
So SONY can sell PS3 at a loss, and still make a profit.
This business model is well known in printers, the profit comes from the ink sales.
However long term Blu ray is not more expensive to build than a DVD. So profits will come from Blu ray player too. That is the reason Panasonic and Samsung make Blu Ray players. They see no profit in making USD 50 DVD players.
When a technology have become a cheap commodity, the big companies will try to force a new format with better profits on the buying public. Small companies get hurt everytime.
Get used to it. It will happen again and again.
< < When a technology have become a cheap commodity, the big companies will try to force a new format with better profits on the buying public. > >This is the last resort of of dying behemoths. You weren't around in the US during the '60s, but an interesting thing happened here. The giants of the consumer electronics industry at that time (RCA, Zenith, GE, et cetera) had been dominating their market for nearly 50 years. Then in a matter of a few years, they got slaughtered and either went out of business or were dismantled.
Why? Because the Japanese companies made products that were less expensive and offered performance that was "good enough" for the average consumer.
And now the same thing is happening to the Japanese companies. The fact that PS2 contributed 50% to Sony's bottom line a year or two ago only shows what terrible shape they are in. They don't make money with TV's, or computers, or Discmen, or DVD players or any of what should be their core businesses. Instead, they are reduced to trying to stay at the forefront of that most faddish of products -- video games.
For a while, they made money selling DVD players. Then when it became a commodity, they couldn't keep up with the Chinese. Why? Because the Chinese companies are making products that are less expensive and offer performance that is "good enough" for the average consumer.
So you see, history is repeating itself. It's only a surprise for those that don't study it. (If you really think I'm wrong, why don't you go ahead and invest your life savings in Sony stock?)
For Sony (and you) to think that they can save themselves by offering higher performing products at a higher price is pure foolishness. That would be like thinking that if only RCA had offered a high performance TV 35 years that cost 5x what the Japanese models did that they would still rule the world of consumer electronics.
The funny part is that you think what Sony is doing is a *good* thing. You are probably one of those kind of guys that happily waits in line to buy the latest abortive fiasco from Microsoft, thinking that it will somehow improve your life. And you happily give Bill Gates even more of your money.
< < Small companies get hurt everytime. > >
Only the ones that make bad decisions. Our business was up 40% last year, which was up 50% over the year before that, which was up 40% over the year before that.
Sorry about Gamut and your aborted SACD player and all that.
There is nothing new for me in your last post.The big CE companies in USA could have stayed in the CE market, just
the companies in Europe did. Perhaps Europe were more clever?Look at Europes trade balance versus USA ?
The japanese produced TVs in Europe for many more years, using local parts. So did Philips, Thomson and Grundig.
And Bang&Olufsen still produce in Europe.In Europe quality is still king, just look at Audi, Porche, Mercedes, BMW.
Look at French and Italien fashion clothes, womens handbags, food and wine.
People all over the world prefer to buy it because it is expensive.
Even in China :-)The big USA manufacturers do not seem understand the concept of quality and a higher price as a positive sales argument.
Your own growth is caused by high price, elegant design and quality.
Very much like an European car.If you tried to go low price, you would fail fast.
GamuT had the best sales ever in July 2003, just when I decided to sell the company. SACD never hurt GamuT.
I sold to end a 14 year long battle with our governement over an illegal act done by the government in 1989. The European court ruled in my and many others favour, but we never got our money back from the Danish government, because the total amount was 7 billion USD, or 5% of Denmarks GNP at that time !
I do not buy Microsoft products, unless I have to. My father developed the largest computer software on punchcards in his time.
Good software keep on being used, remember year 2000?
To sell new "improved software", you have to make bad software :-)
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