Making predictions

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In Reply to: This is cool old film from 1967 from Philco posted by Michael Samra on August 1, 2015 at 15:53:21:

Making predictions about anything is always difficult, but in particular when predictions are about the future.

As predictions go out T, T=1, T+2,.... the error rate increases exponentially.

A prediction applying 30 years from now is all but impossible to make accurately. Think not only about the huge errors in this movie, but also how 2015 was envisioned from the perspective of the year 1985 in Back to the Future Part II. OK, we did get big window-sized flat panel devices, but cars were supposed to be able to fly and we see a host of other technologies that never happened. WE DID get restaurants with ipads and smart phones, only hinted at in the BTTF movie.

Take a look at the electronics. It shows some flat panel screens, but everything, oddly, stayed at old fashioned 4:3 not 16:9, and by modern standards they look thick and clunky.

Will polar bears be extinct a mere 30 years from now as many are certain? I would not place a bet on that one either!

Why people think they can make accurate predictions on any subject 30 years out completely eludes me, and the very brightest minds are no better than the rest of us at doing this. The people that scare me the most are those who claim to have somehow developed complex computer models that can do this.

David

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Follow Ups Full Thread

Topic - This is cool old film from 1967 from Philco - Michael Samra 15:53:21 08/01/15 (8)

I thought as they left the cove... - caffeinator 08:55:34 08/05/15 (0)

Making predictions - DavidLD 15:09:10 08/04/15 (0)

Well, at least shag carpets and that Mary Tyler hair style held up - airtime 09:36:53 08/02/15 (3)

RE: Well, at least shag carpets and that Mary Tyler hair style held up - Michael Samra 00:26:27 08/03/15 (2)

RE: Well, at least shag carpets and that Mary Tyler hair style held up - Cleantimestream 13:03:42 08/05/15 (0)

Thanks Mike and welcome back - airtime 06:27:16 08/03/15 (0)

RE: This is cool old film from 1967 from Philco - davidandcandy@gmail.com 23:23:19 08/01/15 (1)

I could easily visualize the innovations, but - E-Stat 08:51:52 08/02/15 (0)

Follow Ups

Making predictions - DavidLD 15:09:10 08/04/15 (0)

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