Propeller Head Plaza

RE: statistics question

75.50.157.189

In Reply to: RE: statistics question posted by Jon Risch on July 08, 2009 at 23:19:20

Thanks for that. Very interesting. I will read all of it.

Regarding how often we are told, "No one has ever passed a cable blind test," I had a thought.

If there were really a lot of cable blind tests being run, a certain percentage of them would succeed from chance alone. If you run 100 tests at a significance level of 5% you'll probably have 5 of them that reject the null hypothesis.

So if there were really a healthy number of tests being run, we should have a practically endless supply of stories of successful tests. And I don't mean rigorous tests. Just informal tests... by chance alone, you would expect a lot of 16-trial/5% significance tests to reject the null hypothesis no matter whether they are well-run or poorly-run.

This tells me that practically no one is trying to run blind tests! In this case, I believe it is true that: Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence. It's evidence that no one is even looking for evidence.

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RE: statistics question - Jon Risch 14:11:47 07/09/09 (0)

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