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Propeller Head Plaza Technical and scientific discussion of amps, cables and other topics. |
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Propeller Head Plaza Technical and scientific discussion of amps, cables and other topics. |
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Using an online random number generator, I obtained 50 sets of 16 runs where either 0 or 1 was generated. To make clear what I am talking about, the first of the 50 sets is shown below, and as can be seen, consists of eleven 0’s and five 1’s (11/5).0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0
Twenty of the 50 sets were some combination of 9/ 7 (i.e., nine 0’s and seven 1’s, or nine 1’s and seven 0’s). Another eleven were an even 8/8. The remaining combinations were 10/6 (eight), 11/5 (seven), and 12/4 (four).
I suppose it’s possible in sets with even or near even numbers of 0’s and 1’s to have one-sided or alternate patterns (0000000011111111 or 0101010101010101), but that wasn’t the case here. In less balanced sets, as might be expected, long strings of one number did occur. There were seven sets with strings of 6, and two sets with strings of 7. The later are shown below:
1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0
0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1
It is the long strings that could trip up anyone trying to predict in a blinded test (I’ve picked three 0’s in a row, isn’t it time for a 1 ?). Could a subject who was scoring accurately until he tried predicting(consciously or subconsciously) end up with a null because he predicted? In blinded tests that have been done, a pattern of right scores early followed by wrong scores might be evidence of attempts to predict and/or evidence of fatigue.
BTW, the generator I used can be found at
http://www.randomnumbers.info/content/Download.htm
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Topic - Predicting in a DBT - redux - okiemax 11:47:45 05/31/06 (0)
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