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In Reply to: RE: From WSJ: Neil Young CD=$10, LP=$42 posted by Frank_Locke on May 30, 2012 at 08:35:52
Hey ... in my mind if new vinyl makes artists rich, and/or record companies - you can bet there will be more vinyl.
The article was dismissive of Vinyl "only" being 2%. From just 5 years ago, it was 0.02% of record sales. 100-fold increase which takes vinyl from near death coma to being healthy and on the road to recovery!
And if it is a major profit stream well outsized to its volume, you can bet there will be more vinyl if they can help it. And likely cheaper prices.
And you forgot the download code they give you with the $30 record. If you iTunes'ed it it would have been $10. So ... $10 for MP3, $20 for the LP.
While I won't be lining my house with new vinyl at those prices, I do think it is fair given the state of things. If LP's are continuing to grow in the coming years, I'd bet yesterdays $30 is tomorrow's $20 or $15...
"Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad"
Follow Ups:
It's not on the road to recovery. The US and global physical music markets are collapsing. Total music sales in 2011 were $15.9bn. The IFPI reported that US physical sales were down 10% and global 14.2% in that period. Digital went up 5.3% to $4.6bn and rising - some observers believe it will surpass physical in just a year or two.Over four years, vinyl sales have increased 390% - looks impressive until you factor in that they went from 1 million units in 2008 to 3.9 million in 2011 (per Soundscan.) Compare that to 223 million CD units and 103 million digital albums last year. Overall physical sales accounted for $10.4 billion - down over 14% worldwide from the year before. In short, the increase in vinyl sales means that the format still accounts for only eight-tenths of one percent of the total market of recorded music (albums and track-equivalent of albums) and 1.7% of physical media. The minor uptick in vinyl sales looks more impressive only because the overall physical market is crashing - it's as much a result of fewer CDs being sold as of more LPs.
I love me some vinyl, but figures don't lie. I don't for a minute believe that the 'renaissance' we're seeing is anything more than a fad fueled by hipsters. I don't think my collection is going to be worth much of anything in another ten years. Once the hipsters move on to the next hot thing, the hobby goes back to us old guys, and more of us are dying every day. I imagine that if I leave my 20,000 pieces of vinyl to my son, he will be grumbling under his breath as he tries to figure out how much it will cost him to have it hauled away.
Edits: 05/30/12 05/30/12 05/30/12
I don't think vinyl will go away at this point. 5 years ago you might have convinced me.
Where sound quality is important, I think Vinyl will have a home. I expect it to grow and then level off - but at 5% or so of sales of music (not just a medium). Though the way people "buy" music is changing - it is going to get very hard to measure (Pandora, Spotify, MOG, etc.).
I think these services and MP3 are a bigger threat to radio (AM, FM, XM) than the market LP's play in - which is where convenience is less important and sound quality is important.
I'd expect high resolution files to grow, but I am not at all certain where it will end up - but I do not think it will replace, but complement LP's where sound quality is important.
IN any event - whether vinyl will die a long slow death, or become a preferred medium, or somewhere in between - it is becoming a very interesting world as far as audio goes!
"Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad"
If the 1990s didn't kill vinyl, nothing will IMHO.
Hmm... I'm not much of one for anecdotal evidence, but here goes. My son goes off to college this summer. When I left for school 37 years ago, it was a big deal deciding who would bring the stereo, and how I would get my albums there (at the time, all 200 of 'em). He's going with a laptop, an iPod, and a good set of headphones. The idea of loading up a turntable, amp, speakers, and boxes of records would strike him as more than absurd, and I would venture to say that there won't be a single member of his class who'd disagree - in fact, I'll reckon that very few of them will even bring CDs. (Peter IV has a stack of discs in his room, and the only time he ever pulls them out is when he wants to rip one into the computer - and he has a nice Scott integrated, a universal disc player, and a pair of classic Advents).
His generation is making the choices that will inform their music consumption for the rest of their lives, and physical media is not part of it. We grew up on vinyl, and we are keeping it alive. But we're getting older, and as people get older, they tend to simplify their lives and shed material things. Then they die.
Yeah, I hear you. But speaking of anecdotal evidence ...
A few weeks ago on Record Store Day I swung by a hipster store near where I live. (Other Music in NYC)
First of all the line was so insane that I didn't even bother. It was mid-day and a guy I asked said he'd been standing in line for 45 minutes. And he was only about half way to the door. There was nothing much I wanted and the line really put me off. I didn't wait.
But the line was all kids waiting to get in to buy records. 20s, maybe a few in their 30s. I realize things can be different in NYC, and that every day is not RSD, but I thought it was very interesting. All those young guys (and some women too!) waiting in line for a long time to buy records.
to sell them on ebay.
It has crossed my mind. Any RSD records worth any serious money? They all seem throw-away. I later got the Bill Evans live blue vinyl 10" (RSD2012) but it turns out it's a sampler for a set that will be out soon-ish, which I probably would have bought anyway.
wilco-whole love deluxe rsd,phish-junta deluxe rsd,flaming lips-heady fwends rsd,grateful dead-dark star rsd.and that's just 4 titles
nt
At the nearest record shop to where I live - specialized in Jazz and Blues LP's - had crowds on RSD (and also on most Saturday Mornings). The clientele is most definitely NOT hipsters trolling for eBay sales. THere are a couple of them, but it isn't the main part of the business. I know the owner, and he told me that in the 20-odd years of being in business, he almost went under 3 years ago, but vinyl sales rising has saved him.
But being 5 hours from NYC ... that's a long distance for someone to get to on a fixie. :)
At least in the hinterlands, in Upstate NY, Vinyl is really coming back. The city I live in has a population of about 700,000 - and we have 6 record stores that either have a large amount of vinyl, or only sell vinyl. 2 have opened in the last few years.
"Knowledge is knowing that a tomato is a fruit. Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad"
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