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Windows 7 may be a shiny and new version of the world's No. 1 OS, but analysts wonder if customers are willing to give Microsoft a second chance after Vista. Users complain that Vista is sluggish, has too many versions and is susceptible to bugs.
According to a survey of more than 1,000 IT professionals nationwide conducted in March by Dimension Research, 50% said they were considering leaving Windows altogether rather than switch to Windows 7. Apple's (AAPL, Fortune 500) Mac OS X was the system they are most likely to switch to.
"Microsoft tried to stuff too many features into the Vista bag, and the bag burst," said Zeus Kerravala, analyst with Yankee Group. "There was a big loss of goodwill towards Microsoft [over Vista.]"
I get the impression that Apple really wants to cherry-pick the best and juiciest parts of the marketplace for themselves, and to leave the low-margin stuff to others. They're a bit like Nintendo, where nothing they do is a loss-leader. They seem particularly focused on becoming your entertainment portal. They currently have TV, music, iPhone apps and movies, and I suspect they have their eyes on print media as well. Maybe just pennies per transaction, but there's an awful lot of transactions going on. Very clever.
Microsoft has been kind of a one-trick pony. Windows+Office has been a great trick, but it's become more of a commodity, and the threat of Linux has forced MS to offer cut-rate XP licenses to keep Linux from taking over the netbook market. Their attempts to branch out have been less than wildly successful.
a boost to PC sales. I'd guess no, but for a reason the author didn't touch on: for the majority of users, who mainly use their computer for word processing, email, and web functions, the computer and OS they currently own are just fine , and they really see no need to 'upgrade'. Especially when that 'upgrade' means re-learning a new OS at best, and realizing that the new OS is worse than the previous one at worst-the latter point struck home by the Vista/XP comparison/disaster.
As for equipment upgrades, the twin forces of poor economy, and the realization that a new PC isn't going to open a file any faster than your present one, are going to be enough to keep sales down. Let's face it-there's huge market saturation in first-world countries right now, and the entire PC industry is in for a shake up. Read, downsizing.
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"dammit"
Hey Power,
I think you are right.
I remember reading somewhere a while ago that computers were going to be shipping with the option to boot for just doing e-mail and surfing (using linux I think) or to another os for serious computing.
Of course it wouldnt be displayed like that for joe sixpack but that was the jist of the article. You boot up and it gives you an option for surfing and e-mail and another option for programs.
I haven't seen it come to pass though.
Who cares about marketshare?
Protecting marketshare becomes the albatross around the neck of firms with the largest marketshare. Protecting the 'cash cow' becomes the overriding goal.
The innovation for which Apple is well known, and well positioned, occurs most easily in a smaller more 'agile' company.
More and more, MS's innovations come from acquisitions of firms they consider to be competitive threats.
Apple developes new innovative ideas internally, e.g. iPhone, iTunes (the store), etc.
Becoming the marketshare leader would be a bad thing for Apple, IMHO.
Apple has been steadily gaining share for several years in the home market. They already dominate pro audio, video and graphic design. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that they have taken market share in small business. But like others have already said here, I don't look for them to take much away from Windows in the corporate world. It is far too entrenched in the IT departments.
P
Another interesting perspective on how to infiltrate the corporate market is through popular consumer gadgets like the iPhone.
My company has the infrastructure to support the BlackBerry from RIM allowing field personnel to access their email and a few apps as they spend most of their days away from a traditional office and computer.
When the iPhone hit the market and more and more employees started buying them (including influential managers and execs), there was a critical mass of demand and pressure on our IT department to support the iPhone. IT caved in and now we support BlackBerry and iPhone.
The folks who were accustomed to their BlackBerrys are still addicted to them but at my company most new smartphone users choose iPhone.
Apple is investing heavily to make iPhone more suitable for corporate email and apps.
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Ain't gonna happen in my opinion. Vista is fine and 7 will do very well.
If Apple couldn't take over the world when Windows was at version 3.1 or earlier, they are never going to do it. As time has passed Windows has done nothing but gain ground (anti-Vista hype aside, which is baloney anyway because Vista works just fine, thank you very much).
Everyone knows this but hates to admit it but remember Beta vs. VHS?Frankly Apple missed the boat on the netbook craze.
But then of course Apples netbook would cost $900 and you can get a Windows or Linux based one for less than $300.
Edits: 06/12/09 06/12/09
For those shops that _will_ be sticking with Windows desktops, everything I've seen (not read in the news) indicates that most IT managers are anxiously awaiting Windows 7. Not the scenario you paint, where they've become gun shy due to Vista. Many (_MANY_) companies never even began to role out Windows Vista due to both the problems and the hardware requirements, which means that they're very keen on moving to a newer OS than XP. Most of the reason is in better centralized network administration and control, not a desire for shiny new toys.
J,
Most of the reason is in better centralized network administration and control, not a desire for shiny new toys.
This is soooo true. IT is mostly a racket where they have built in job security by making it so no one can do anything without them.
For instance, I one got an error message that said I lacked the administrative rights to do something and that I needed to call IT.
A common occurrence no doubt for many, but I was simply trying to UNDOCK FROM MY DOCKING STATION!
I suspect far more shops are considering the switch to Linux desktops than to Macs. Particularly in large organizations where you're talking about thousands or even tens of thousands of machines, the cost savings in hardware and software vs. a Microsoft shop is very real. TCO and administrative costs may still favor Microsoft, but the gap is narrowing quickly as more mid and low level IT techs are becoming Linux literate.
The other big trend that will eat Microsoft up is that more and more business software is becoming web/HTTP based, so all you need is a capable browser and handful of common business apps like word processors and spreadsheets for 95% of the typical company's employees. Those with particular software needs can use Mac, Windows, Sun, or whatever workstations.
I don't doubt that the Mac will continue to gain some small amount of market share, but it won't be IT driven.
I mentioned earlier that the OS and apps on top of the OS will become less important in a web based world where "software as a service" will continue to grow.
However, I'm not so sure that Linux on the desktop will take off. I've played with various flavors of Linux over the years including the most current Ubuntu. It's still comparatively very rough and clunky vs Windows or Mac OS X.
The big trend that IS happening right now are lower cost lower power thin-clients on the desktop with centralized administration at the server.
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"The big trend that IS happening right now are lower cost lower power thin-clients on the desktop with centralized administration at the server."
I guess fashions change, that's why they are fashions. But having once escaped the clutches of the malefactors of the mainframes, I've no desire to go back.
Rad Rick
...and there's been a huge demand for thin clients mostly in larger organizations in order to reduce administration costs and the per seat cost of hardware as well as significant reductions in energy costs.
A stateless thin client might draw 8 - 12 watts while a desktop computer might take 50 to 150 watts. Multiply that by thousands of employees and the energy savings alone are significant. Customer support call centers are great candidates for thin clients as are many other organizations.
You still get your full blown desktop that's under your control but the OS image resides on the server. In fact, you can architect a solution to get just about any desktop you want including Windows, Linux, Mac OS, and even legacy terminal emulation - if you must.
Every major vendor sells thin client solutions including IBM, HP, Dell, Sun, Lenovo, and many smaller players.
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I seem to recall that the VT100 had some graphics capability that the VT52 didn't.
So where does the code actually execute? Where do Aps live? Hmmm, I just consulted that world-renown font of accuracy: Wikipedia, and it sure sounds like a regression to a pure client-server model to me.
I suppose it's all in the eye of the beholder. For home use, which is currently the office too, I would like it. It's really a bother to set up a new computer. But on the other foot, the reliability of having individual systems that can operate independently is unbeatable. I can't imagine having real mission critical software that won't work if the internet is down. The internet is good for communications and entertainment, but all it takes is a few snipped fibers in San Jose and you're SOL.
In an office environment, well, it depends. Probably mostly upon the quality and attitude of the IT folks. RISK ALARM! RISK ALARM! But I've known a few good 'uns...
Rick
Windows 7 will no doubt keep and add to MS users. This OS will be the king of the hill for sometime to come regardless of what 1000 ITs think. From statistics, Vista has more than 300 million users. So much for it being all crap. lol
I didn't like the first release of Vista, but by the 2nd update it ran without a glitch. The newest Vista is a smooth running OS IME!
Windows 7 will be a juggernaut!
"Vista has more than 300 million users"
Hello, lost logic somewhere?
What does the number of users have to do with quality. The largest number of TV users in the world use Zenit TV, it does not make it any better.
I am one of the Vista users, unfortunately, and use it only because new notebook came with it and my wife is using it. It is pathetic product.
My old clunker PC runs XP and Ubuntu and XP only because some software is not available for Linux.
Hello.. have you tried Windows 7? You may want to give it a go before throwing the baby out with the bath water. It is a terrific operating system. Give it a go why don't you..it is free to try.I use Windows 7 RC on all three PCs at home. Before that I used the Beta versions. At work they still use Windows XP. I find myself trying to perform task at work, like I would do at home. Windows 7 is a millennium ahead of old XP which is very clunky IMO.
It is frustrating at times adjusting back to XP on a daily basis for me. I've had OSX here for a trial run..sorry fellows Windows 7 smokes it very easily in use. Even for the most entrenched hater of MS , Windows 7 will be hard not to like. lol
Edits: 06/14/09 06/14/09
"From statistics, Vista has more than 300 million users. So much for it being all crap"
And crowds behave like sheep. Fast food is good for you too! So much for it being all crap. ;-)
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is keep dreaming of a Mac world.Not going to happen any time soon! We'll let the bottom line do the talking.Right now the bottom line is 87.75% in MS favor.
"is keep dreaming of a Mac world.Not going to happen any time soon! We'll let the bottom line do the talking.Right now the bottom line is 87.75% in MS favor."
-- Yes, down from about 98%. There really is no question that Apple is rapidly gaining market share after years as a niche product, and it's going to take more than a better, more stable version of Windows to stop that trend. Still, Windows has a commanding share of the corporate IT market and I doubt that is going to change unless 7 proves to be as much of a disaster as Vista was.
Tim
Not going to happen my friend. Windows 7 has been an absolute joy. I was impressed with it from the time of the first install.I personally have no interest in Mac or any of their products. Nothing wrong with them, they just don't turn my head. No doubt Mac has gained a little ground...good for them!
I and apparently quite a few others prefer to have more options in software and hardware..that's the area where I find Mac trailing behind. For me that is enough reason to stay with Windows for the time being.
Edits: 06/14/09
What is it, exactly, that's not going to happen? You lost me.
Software is no longer an impediment. On a Mac, you can run your Windows software in one window and an OSX application in another, side by side, simultaneously. Try that on your Dell.
Still, if OSX doesn't blow your skirt up, or if you have no need for any of the (mostly pro audio/video) proprietary Mac software, and you've figured out how to get good audio performance out of Windows, there's not good reason to change. Enjoy.
P
What is it, exactly, that's not going to happen? You lost me.
Software is no longer an impediment. On a Mac, you can run your Windows software in one window and an OSX application in another, side by side, simultaneously. Try that on your Dell.
Still, if OSX doesn't blow your skirt up, or if you have no need for any of the (mostly pro audio/video) proprietary Mac software, and you've figured out how to get good audio performance out of Windows, there's not good reason to change. Enjoy.
P
I was refering to Windows 7 being a disaster as Vista has been made out to be. I just can't see that happening with 7.
Yes I'm aware you can dual boot with Mac. But why would you want to use the god awful Windows OS? ;-)
It's made out to be so bad..no hard core Mac guy should be caught dead using it! lol
Good listening
I don't expect 7 to be a disaster. MS usually gets it about right (or as right as ever MS gets it) every other time. They're due. Why would you run Windows on a Mac? Unless you need some obscure piece of software that is Windows only, I can't imagine. Running Windows on a Mac is like running Yugo on a Ferrari.
P
LOL...a good portion of the software I run is only for Windows. All of it is freeware at that. Yeah after having a Mac mini for kicks around to play with..it is certainly more equated with a Pinto than a Ferrari IMO.lolAll three of my Windows units run circles around it , especially the two desktops.
Every time a good friend of mine stops by who owns the Mac Mini,and sees me using cool programs that he can't use unless he goes through the hassles of dual booting. He tells me.."I wish I'd bought a Windows unit". Gasp..the horror! :-0
Edits: 06/15/09 06/15/09 06/15/09
Pinto? Perhaps if you're comparing a mini to a configured desktop PC. But then you still have to deal with Windows. Yeah, I know the Ferrari thing was overstatement, but it's a good line anyway. :)
Where I work we have lots and lots of Windows machines and a single table full of Macs. Mac users never come in to switch to Windows. It's always the other way around. Never seen an exception. If OSX and Windows had developed under an even playing field, I think the line would be pretty clear, with people who like to tweak, or have IT support, on the W side, and folks who just want to plug in and have the machine do what's expected of it on the other. Instead, we ended up with a lot of folks who just want a good tool on the wrong side of the line, trying to use it intuitively and being consistently frustrated by it.
See the thing is, most people aren't using freeware; they don't even know what it is. They just want to set up their Facebook page and send emails with pictures attached to Aunt Millie on a machine that does what it's supposed to do without the constant obligatory pats on the ass and the gradual grinding into slow-mo. The guys who are messing with freeware don't understand them. They think they're dumb. Folks on the other side think it's dumb to own a hammer that won't simply drive the damn when it's swung.
P
I too am anxious to try Windows 7 when it's released. But I do like Mac OS X. It's nice to have a choice.
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Too bad only Windoze is spread all over.
Like the other poster stated about only having Vista because it was supplied with the computer. Wonder if it would be different if OSX was like that too?
I am looking forward to play with Win 7,tired of the RC (beta), but I am looking towards getting myself a mini mac too in the near future .....
-chris
And I'm currently typing this on a Mac OS X machine ...
However, at the end of the day people use whatever operating system their applications run on.
The real question is whether Windows 7 is incentive enough for people to migrate from XP.
The browser is becoming increasingly more important compared to the operating system or any app that resides on your PC. Many apps are web based and more are going that route. Long-term, that has Microsoft very very worried. They typically lag behind industry trends.
My main apps are free... I run OpenOffice3.1 on Mac OS X and Windows as well as Firefox and Thunderbird. I avoid paying Microsoft whenever possible. ;-)
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I noticed I'm increasingly using things like Google Docs and Gmail on Chrome.
Once Chrome is released on Mac OS X (theres already a beta out) there's no reason why I can't use Mac OS X for most of my daily computing.
The winner for cloud computing is likely to be Google, and I'm sure Microsoft is very very worried.
However, my DAW is Sonar which is unfortunately Windows only. But my VSTs are all Mac OS X compatible, so maybe I should just bite the bullet and buy Logic Pro. I'm waiting for them to release a 64-bit version though.
More expensive Mac's are not IMO, going to win out over cheaper PC's in a recession. Consumers are dumb & cheap & vote with their wallet.
G
The low-end nettop and netbook market are heating up because these machines are supposed to be cheap..... and the margins much better for the ailing PC industry.
Many ARE cheap but many are going more upscale and unfortunately consumers aren't aware of the severe limitations of these machines with their underpowered Intel Atom processors. Some netbooks are selling for upwards of $900 (Sony Vaio P). I wouldn't pay more than about $300 before looking to more mainstream systems with respectable performance for real world operating systems and apps.
BTW, I found this interesting. :-) Quoted from the July 2009 MaximumPC Magazine article titled "Decrap your Drive" :
"Ever wonder how a new PC can be bought for $400 with a new monitor? Part of the answer is the software subsidies. Fire up any low-cost PC and the desktop looks like it got hit with a 12-gauge load of icons. These icons lead to trialware, which when expired, do nothing but decompose on your hard drive and waste space. On some PCs, the amount of trailware has gotten so bad that it takes a few hours just to scrub it off. Now there's an easier way to zap those apps without spending hours...."
You won't find a load of useless bloatware on a new Mac. I'm not a Mac bigot, really! I use various flavors of computing daily. ;-)
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Netbooks are not designed to be full desktop replacements. They are intended for computing on the go, browsing the web in a coffee shop, putting the finishing touches on a paper.
I find my EeePC 900 (900Mhz Celeron) perfect for the tasks it was designed for. I even stream video to it over my lan and the net using Orb.
...Sure, netbooks are not designed to be desktop replacements. They're not designed to be laptop or notebook replacements either.
But unfortunately, consumers don't realize this. All they see is a cheap "laptop" and the manufacturers love it because nettops are cheap to make with better margins and an eager market.
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To receive OEM discounts on Windows Netbooks must comply with these restrictions
Today (Windows XP / Windows Vista)
Screen Not to exceed 12.1"
RAM 1 GB RAM
Storage 160 GB HDD or 32 GB SDD
Graphics Less than or equal to DX9
Touch Screen Resistive touch only
CPU Single core processors that do not exceed 1 GHz frequency, or
Intel Atom (N270, N280, 230, Z500, Z510, Z515, Z520, Z530, Z540, Z550), or
Intel Celeron 220, or
AMD (MV-40, 1050P, TF-20, Geode LX, Athlon 2650e, Sempron 210U), or
VIA (C7-M ULV, Nano U1700, U2250, U2300, U2400 or U2500)
Windows 7 Starter / Home Basic for Small Notebook PCs
Screen Not to exceed 10.2"
RAM 1 GB RAM
Storage 250 GB HDD or 64 GB SDD
Graphics No limitation
Touch Screen No limitation
CPU Single core processors that :
do not exceed 2 GHz frequency, and
have a CPU thermal design power that is less than or equal to 15 W, not including the graphics and chipset.
.
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Netbook manufacturers have every right to pay full retail price for Windows if they do not want to comply with the terms to get the OEM discounts.
I have 3 computers right now. My main work computer is running Vista 64 bit. My laptop for travel is running Win 7 RCM and my music server is a Mac Mini running OSX Tiger.
Vista has been totally rock solid since day one. Win 7 seems snappier and has been a joy to work with, too. My Mac has been somewhat problematic and it's not running anything but the stock OS and iTunes.
Unlike Vista it has crashed twice in a year and I've had to force quite iTunes at least 3 times during this time too. The stock HD that came in the Mini failed completely and had to be replaced as well. My first HD failure since 1987.
I'm sure it's because I'm more used to the way things work in Windows, but when people that are well-schooled in Windows move to OSX they have to do a lot of head scratching and relearning, and many times the impression is that it's not any better, just different. There are at least a dozen of these differences that I think are just plain better in Windows.
Windows 7 is going to be a ragging success. It's got all the good that you'll find in Vista (and there's a lot of good in Vista) and then improvements around every corner.
Apple and OSX are doing well. They are increasing marketshare. This will continue, but it will not be anything like 50/50 or even 80/20.
I think Windows 7 is miles ahead of my XP pro setup...so thats gone forever. As a long time Linux user (only using any Windows to fill in, as needed) I truly enjoy running Windows 7 beta, and now Windows 7 RC.
I have Linux 64 bit on one hard drive, and Windows 7 64 bit on another...I boot to either as I feel like it. With XP pro I always felt like Linux, and thats not the case anymore, (never thought I'd say that).
"Unlike Vista it has crashed twice in a year." That's interesting. I used Tiger for 2 years and it never crashed once. I've used Leopard for nearly a year and it's never crashed. Panther never crashed on me either. In other words, Mac OS X has never crashed on me in the 5 years I've used it (2004).
I've never used Vista. For me, decades of forced Microsoft use has resulted in significant hatred for their products, which I now only use when absolutely necessary.
Freudian slip or prescience?
We have a couple WinXP SP3 desktop machines at home that we "baby" by not opening too many apps at once and just run some basic stuff. They've been stable. I have WinXP SP3 on a Lenovo laptop thats been very stable.
My father and sister have Vista and it's been a bit problematic.
I have Mac OS X Leopard 10.5.7 on the Mac Mini, MacBook Pro, and iMac 20". All have been rock solid, very snappy, and zero OS crashes or lockups in 1.5 years (on the MacBook Pro anyway which I've owned the longest. The others are newer but still no Mac OS X problems).
I'm actually more accustomed to Windows too as I have been on "PCs" since the early MS-DOS, DR-DOS, OS/2, Win31, Win95/98, Win2000, WinXP days so go figure.
Also running Ubuntu Linux 9.04, Windows XP SP3, and OpenSolaris 2009.06 on the iMac all within VirtualBox desktop virtualization software, mostly for fun but WinXP SP3 on the Mac has come in handy a few times.
I certainly don't expect Mac OS X to overtake Windows in my lifetime but at least for me, I'm convinced that Mac OS X is the more responsive and stable OS.
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But why does everyone have to stress Windoze 7 RC? Why not call it what it is,, Windows 7 beta version (?)?
Until it is fully released, MS can call it whatev3r, it is still betaware......
But I do look forward to its release.
-chris
Actually, Beta and RC are two different stages of the process. The actual stages are Alpha, Beta, Release Candidate and Release to Manufacturing.
Once it leaves Beta they do final testing on the code they expect to release. They may end up with a couple of release candidates but it means that features and contents are locked down and only subtle changes to make the code more stable can be made. When the RC stage is over then a RTM version is readied and NO changes are expected to be made -- it will have to wait until the "update" process.
THAT is why people say they're running Win 7 RC as opposed to Win 7 Beta. They are two different things.
Still RC to me........
I have been noticing that some have been writing code for the RC, why put so much into this when you are not sure it will be a final product......
-chris
Clearly you haven't installed many Unix/Linux operating systems where alpha/beta/RC releases are an everyday thing.
You need to pick up a spare hard drive so that you can play around with some of these "free" operating systems....and you will soon see where the Mac OS's have their roots.
The question posed is "IF you're going to switch (to whatever)" - who says anybody's switching to anything? Large companies are mostly using XP, and big bosses are usually very reluctant to even upgrade OS, let alone go with totally different platform.
Fantasy world, pretty much.
There's really no reason to think this will change dramatically, since the early word is that Windoze 7 is not total crap, which it would have to be to cause mass departures. Continued small gains in the enterprise for Mac, except as regards PowerBooks, of course, where Apply has always been stronger.On any given day, 50% of IT professionals "think" about eating less junk food and dropping some pounds, too. It's utterly meaningless; they won't, by and "large."
> "more than 1,000 IT professionals nationwide conducted in March by Dimension Research, 50% said they were considering leaving Windows altogether rather than switch to Windows 7"
Edits: 06/12/09
Maybe OSX will take some market share, but not much. Think of it this way, if not a single Windows user switched to Windows 7, Windows would still be 80+ % of the installed base.
Hi Abe,
FWIW, as an average everyday Vista user, I find Vista very stable and even more so than XP, never encountered any bugs or mishaps. Apple OSX has always been there and I don't see that many people switching over to it. Infact, with the abundance of available software for PC, Windows will always be the first choice for the average user. IMHO, Vista has raised the bar for Microsoft.
AP
***Dedicated PC Tower-->AQVOX USB cable-->Trendsaudio UD-10.1-->Assemblage DAC 3.1 Platinum/D2D-1 Upsampler-->BAT VK-3ixSE-->Beard P-35MK2 EL-84 -->Tannoy GRF Memory TW----->SlinkyLinks Cables/Acoustic Zen El Nino Power Cord
... apart from a few graphics people who whittered on about "intuitive" operations.
I remember Amex doing a survey which showed Apple had 5% of the commercial market. Do I remember that correctly? I think so!
They have also always been over-priced despite a series of advertised price reductions they continually appear to be chasing the market.
I had one once and it was very ordinary.
I have had no problems with Vista at all, but I have only had it for a couple of months.
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I have not switched from XP SP3, but many of my colleagues have. When I go over to their desk to help them with something, I am often totally bemused by the number of extra gestures they have to make to accomplish tasks I accomplish - extra windows, button presses, key strokes.
To find files matching a certain pattern, mount file systems, change networking parameters etc. It seems that Vista has been overloaded with UI enhancements that actually stifle productivity among PC-savvy users. This is particularly true for power users in the IT industry - programmers and the like.
Vista does not appeal to me.
Regards,
Geoff
My newish laptop has Vista home lobotomized-lowest-of-low version and I'm amazingly happy with it. Three reasons I think:
- I was prepared to hate it. So had low expectations.
- The stripped version already has the most egregious bling missing.
- The help system actually works.
It's just amazing how often the screen that comes up either has the answer or off in the corner says "hey, you weren't by any chance looking for THIS were you?" And indeed I was. This is the first OS of any stripe I've used where I've found the help screens helpful.
So, perhaps you are right and it takes more clicks to get somewhere under some conditions than other versions. I don't know. But it's easier for me and if I had to do this stuff all the time I'd just use the command line rather than the GUI anyway so I don't see a problem.
Rick
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