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I haven't been very active in recent years, but when I emerged from under a rock to get my Bryston 6B SST repaired after 13 years in place I was happy to find them pretty much unchanged. I've followed photography much more closely than audio these past few years, and that is definitely an industry experiencing an epic collapse. One of my favourite commentators, Thom Hogan, often uses the collapse of high end audio as a warning. Yet it occurs to me that to my knowledge audio journalists have never really documented this alleged collapse or even approached a quantification and parsing of the market they are involved with. This is in very sharp contrast to photographic journalism which often sports graphs showing parsed (point and shoot, mirrorless, DSLR) shipments over the past several years by unit and by dollar.
Anyway, my agenda is not to beat up on audio journalism - I haven't been following closely enough for that - but to ask whether I'm missing some cogent analysis on this topic, or whether there are insurmountable difficulties I'm overlooking. My guiding assumption has been that high end audio - just like the DSLR - may die with the baby boomers. That it has no place in a world dominated by instant gratification, portability and social media. I'd be happy to be proved wrong.
Follow Ups:
"That it has no place in a world dominated by instant gratification, portability and social media. I'd be happy to be proved wrong."
---
Now, if audio publications and photography publications offered their journalism in graphic novel or comic book format there might be a chance to develop a new generation of hobbyists.
"Batman Test The New McIntosh Amp!"
"Thor Rattles The House With Three New Subwoofers".
You get the idea.
"I've followed photography much more closely than audio these past few years, and that is definitely an industry experiencing an epic collapse."The "collapse" was due to the products improving so much, consumers and pros both opted to keep what they have rather than try new products. The technology improved "too well", if you will. Even a cheap point-and-shoot camera will yield results that would startle any photographer who has stuck to classic film products.
(People look a my pics at the audio shows. I'm asked if I'm a professional photographer. I say "No." .... I don't do much photography outside these audio shows. I just happen to use what I think is a nice point-and-shoot camera.)
Audio is a totally different fish. It's not so much "follow the money" as it is "follow the music"..... A person typically into today's pop music simply doesn't see any value added in reproducing it with higher fidelity. That's because the music is overly compressed, overprocessed, and lacking the microdynamics, delicate textures, and artistic nuances that would make someone want to listen to it with greater resolution.
And conversely, if you know people into high-end audio, they're almost always into music that commands higher fidelity. Whether it's Beethoven, Miles Davis, Bob Marley, Eva Cassidy, Louis Armstrong, or Steven Wilson.
Edits: 08/09/16
And always hyped and overblown by it's writers and fanboys.
They are unaware of their downfall, and lack of influence, in the "real world".
there is a decent piece at Stereophile just now on the very topic of your inquiry. In it Leebens even takes a stab at the basic numbers (below), something this raucous crowd here haven't but the foggiest (yet desperately dare not admit!) ...
I've been involved in a lot of the efforts with the Consumer Electronics Association, which is now the Consumer Technology Association. Back in the day when there was a High Performance Audio Advisory Board there were a lot of industry people like Ray Kimber, Kathy Gornik, then from Thiel, Richard Schram from Parasound, Wes Phillips from Stereophile, me, and a lot of people whom I sadly can't recall at the moment. That was an effort that was killed by CEA (I think) largely because they didn't think it was large enough to matter. Going by CEA/CTA stats, consumer electronics in the United States is about a $275 billion/year business, and even the most optimistic estimates put high-end audio as $1 billion or less in the US.
Black Lives Matter
I think people today are taking far more photos than they ever have in the past. What I see happening is that average people are ditching their compact point & shoot cameras because smart phone cameras have become good enough for most. That whole mainstream segment of the camera market is practically gone. The DSLR market was hot during the megapixel race as enthusiasts kept upgrading every few years, but that race is largely over now. And it seems like most of the tech investments are focused on miniaturization, i.e. the smart phone camera.
The last cameras my wife and I purchased were a Nikon D90 and a Panasonic Lumix TZ5 in 2008. We used to use the P&S about 2/3 of the time and the DSLR the rest. The Lumix was one of the better P&S cameras on the market at the time, but it wasn't good enough to be our only camera, particularly for low light and shallow depth of field. Then my wife got a Nokia 1020 phone and it is a better camera than the Lumix in nearly every way except response time, which is a drawback with most phone cameras but particularly bad with this one. Now 80% of our photos and 100% of our videos come from the phone.
We still use the Nikon but only when we're needing to use the fast prime or wide zoom. By DSLR standards, our D90 is ancient and it is gimped with an APS-C sensor. But it's the lenses that really matter, so I don't feel any urge to upgrade.
Regarding high end audio, if you visit one of the bigger shows, it appears to be booming. Check this out:
http://www.my-hiend.com/vbb/showthread.php?10531-2016
It seems like there are more manufacturers than ever before with new ones popping up all the time, products are coming to market faster than ever, and there are more shows than ever. In my area, nearly all of the high end audio dealers that were around 15 years ago are still here, and a few new ones have shown up.
The thing that really seems to be in decline is home theater, and by extension multichannel audio.
The problem there is that nobody is being paid to keep track.Try to find someone keeping track of audiophile speaker shipments as in the graph above.
Even hard to track electron tube production as a measure of audiophile tube amp sales as much of the new production of electron tubes goes into guitar amps.
Even if someone did spend a LOT of time and money to track the so-called 'high-end' audio market from a dollar value perspective, who would they sell the report to? And with the Asian manufacturers in the mix, it would be near impossible to get a handle on the sub-components that are so easy to track in digital photography, (i.e. Sony and Canon sensors).
Every industry I have been associated with over the years, be it photography, bicycles, office machine, medical, etc., was fairly easy to track with a handful of major players who were either public and forced to report, or were otherwise easy to track if not by what they sold, at least by what they bought in order to produce.
OK, most of us lied about our total sales, but still. :-)
Audio doesn't fit any of the above. Except for the lying about your sales part.
Edits: 07/04/16
A number of market research firms are selling data and forecasts at a price.
I attended CES/T.H.E. about every year from 2000-2009 and heard numbers mention across the board. And this by players large and small.
All of the major players claimed a larger percentage of the market than the actually controlled mostly because the only dealers they cared (or knew about) about were their own.
Even with consolidation of component manufactures (speaker drivers, etc.) the market is too diffuse and ill-defied to pin solid numbers on.
I used to feel much the same way about market research, but the good ones back up their public company parsing and private company guesses (or conversations) with household survey data.
I could care less if high-end audio is dead or alive. My only focus is finding equipment I can afford that does a good job of reproducing music i like. A lot of my equipment comes from small mfrs., ones you have to work hard to find and to research their products. I've also found that a lot of the equipment at the lower end of the Audio Note UK line represents excellent value. Their components are also excellent for those who like to modify their equipment. It can make a difference.
High end audio is alive and well and growing. We have introduced many new high end audio consumers through Youtube and social media. I get stopped and told this at every audio show I attend. That is the future. All three of our channels have a similar bar graph. We have over 11,000,000 views.The future of everything is social media... change in the middle east, change in news delivery, change in product popularities, change in how we make friends. Change in everything.
Edits: 07/04/16
High end audio is alive and well and growing. -Peter Breuninger
LOL, you must be joking Peter, When Asia's merry go round slows you can video the victims ..
Would we not know by seeing all the high end companies going out of business in droves? It seems to me that in general all the established brands are still in business and many more are popping up all the time. Populations keep increasing and therefore more audiophiles are created. As 20-30 year olds make more money perhaps they will invest in audio in the future.
And what about home theater? This still counts as audio.
Home theater yes. Companies like D&M Holdings have significant revenues and likely can afford some serious R&D.
I would think it would be pretty easy to determine whether or not something has disa
I was unable to get at recent data - anyone manufacturer here who is a member of CTA may have much better access- A quote from a 2011 NPR story -
"Cue up the statistics: In 1998, The New York Times estimated that high-end audio sales totaled approximately $500 million a year. In 2010, the CEA says, sales were around $200 million."
The recession and housing crash certainly contributed to these numbers. My take, is that the high end will continue to slowly shrink, but will likely carry on as a luxury goods/enthusiast industry.
Onte thing I am curious about is where the overall luxury durable goods industry will be headed. I get the sense (with nothing but anecdotal observations) that the coming generations are going to be spending a lot less on Things than we have done.
"In 1998, The New York Times estimated that high-end audio sales totaled approximately $500 million a year." I doubt that the NYT has or had enough interest in high-end audio to invest in any research. They probably quoted someone or something just as NPR did.
Edits: 07/02/16 07/02/16
I assume that is U.S. sales, but that would put it at only $500 to $600 million world-wide. Perhaps it has recovered somewhat since 2011, but an industry that size has to borrow innovation from other industries: which helps to explain the emphasis on DACs, music servers, networking etc..
"the collapse of high end audio"Hahahahahahahahaha!
You obviously didn't go to the Newport audio show, or read/view the threads about it here.
:)
Edits: 07/02/16
I'm not stating that there has been any such collapse. One of my key questions is "How would we know?".
...people have been forecasting the demise of high end audio for at least 20 years now.As the Baby Boomers stop buying equipment and B & M stores close, high end is diminishing, but I don't think it will ever disappear as long as people are passionate about music reproduction.
Sometimes I'm surprised at all of the 30 and 40 year olds posting here.
Younger people are listening to music more than ever with iPods, smart phones and streaming devices.
Just look at the boom in headphones.
High end will morph and change but will never go away.
Edits: 07/02/16
Yes, it is true that brick and mortar stores are disappearing, but, that is the case with all forms of retailing, particularly the big department stores are in trouble, but, I don't see an uptick in naked people running around. People are buying stuff more stuff on line. Also, while interest in audio has declined in the US and Europe (change in interest, lower real wages for the middle class), there has been a lot of growth in Asia. A lot of the very high end manufacturers sell much more in Asia than they do in the west.
I agree that even if there is a decline of interest here, there will always be people seeking out better sound and so high end audio will never die out completely. To me, the more distressing current trend is the public actually favoring the sound of modern recordings--highly compressed, tizzy and processed. It isn't just the case that recording companies are cramming crap down the public's throat, the public actually likes this kind of sound.
> ...the public actually likes this kind of sound.>
The public likes music - they don't know the difference in sound quality until they hear something better.
Remember, we grew up listening to 8-tracks, cheap record changers and cassettes.
And we became audiophiles.
I dunno mkuller: maybe it's my manufacturing background that rebels against statements like this. Or maybe I was too committed 20 years ago to the vision of stereo/multichannel music crafted from source to reproduction in the home for maximum fidelity. Somehow the idea that there will always be a market of some finite size for some more expensive audio stuff strikes me as being trivial and empty. Sure there are qualitative trends we can talk about - especially the trend to more selfish enjoyment (headphones) - but I wasn't suggesting that the audio media were deficient in doing that.
> ...the trend to more selfish enjoyment (headphones)...>Very few audiophiles listen to their main systems with others.
Headphones can be very considerate of others who don't want to be disturbed.
High end has been changing along with music media and will never be like it was in the 1980s.
How will you know?
Look at the proliferation of components costing over $20,000 ea - someone is buying them.
Edits: 07/02/16
Not so much: with $20,000 price points a small "manufacturer" might break even on a couple of dozen units.
Just watch for the demise of Audio print media (TAS, Stereophile, etc.). When that happens (just a few more years IMO) you'll know that the end is near.
No, that's the end of print media. Unrelated. I'm in print media and it's ending but that doesn't mean the things that we write about are ending.
> Just watch for the demise of Audio print media (TAS, Stereophile, etc.).
You're just a fat man in the bathtub, with the blues, Spotcheck Billy. :-)
John Atkinson
Editor, Stereophile
You probably didn't get too many days in the tub while growing up in Jolly Olde. Here we die if we don't get our bathes and showers. Be an adopter.
> You probably didn't get too many days in the tub while growing up in Jolly
> Olde.The poster to whom I was responding called himself "Spotcheck Billy," who
was a character in the Little Feat song "Fat Man in the Bathtub" (a
euphemism for clitoris, if you are curious). The first 2 lines of the
song go:"Spotcheck Billy got down on his hands & knees
He said "Hey momma, hey let me check your oil alright?"
John Atkinson
Editor, Stereophile
Edits: 07/08/16
I try to learn something every day. I learned several things from this post.
I am sure that Her Majesty will remember you when next her Birthday comes around.
Yr fmr employee + loyal friend
JM
(nt)
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