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Re: Some further thoughts ... (also longish)

The parallel drawn between the High-End Audio industry and the Information Technology (IT) industry came to mind near the end of the above post and, on re-reading the post, it struck me that maybe a more detailed comparison could be interesting.

The IT industry has been seriously impacted by a few megatrends and key “turning points” which have had significant impacts on the dynamics of vendor:buyer interactions.

These are:

a) The Personal Computer
b) Commoditisation
c) Insourcing and Outsourcing

THE PERSONAL COMPUTER (PC)

The long-term effect of the development of the PC has eroded the market for mainframe computers. Large mainframe systems still exist, but PC-derived systems have begun to erode the periphery of their environments. Initially, PC’s were stand-alone workstations but soon evolved to operate on networks. The PC started out as a “moveable” but “desk-bound” system and has evolved through the “laptop”, “notebook” to “palm-top” portability. In addition, PCs have split into “servers” and “workstations”.

Some parallels in the Audio industry?

a) Erosion of market? HT/AV and iPOD-type devices have begun to erode stereo market
b) Stand-lone to networks? Traditional stereo rig vs Multi-Zone/Multi-Room systems
c) Move toward portability? Portable record players -> iPOD
d) Client/Server? What price Music Servers and Satellites?

COMMODITISATION

As the price per unit of computing power has plummeted, we’ve seen forced changes in the “Go-To-Market-Models” of IT companies. Mainframe computers were sold to specialists by specialists, while, nowadays, PC’s are bought by anyone from total idiots. Selling entailed salespeople visiting clients to sell, while buying happens via the most convenient “channel”.

In the Audio industry?

a) Music has been commoditised – it’s bought via the most convenient channel
b) Audio equipment is, these days, also sold by idiots and buying is becoming more prevalent
c) Portable music players are fully commoditised and becoming more portable

INSOURCING & OUTSOURCING

Back in the heyday of the proprietary mainframes, each manufacturer designed, engineered and manufactured virtually each and every component that went in to make up the mainframe system and it’s peripherals. Over time, specialist companies like Intel, Seagate, etc. started to drive the technology development in their respective fields of microprocessors, disk drives, etc. The major system manufacturers stopped their own R&D in these areas and bought-in rather than have to duplicate the R&D and compete in non-core niches. More recently, we’ve seen companies outsource other non-core elements like casework, software development, etc. Today’s successful IT companies are either very narrowly-focused niche manufacturers of either hardware or software components, or they are “integrators” that build “systems” using bought-in “components”.

In audio?

a) CD players are a good example of “integrated components” – CD mechanisms, DAC chips, displays, etc.
b) JRDG? Outsource of casework, buying-in of ICEpower electronics?

SO, WHERE IS IT ALL HEADING?

Well, there is another factor – let’s call it “miniaturization” for lack of a better term.

Back in 1969 when I first entered the IT world, the largest-capacity disk drive was 5MB in a cabinet the size of a SpeedQueen automatic washing machine. Today, we see an iPOD Nano equipped with 8GB of storage on a memory card the size of a 1/8” thick postage stamp. We won’t even bother to compare either the purchase price of each or the price per MB. This is another megatrend – the plummeting of the cost per MB of solid-state storage and the rapid growth in capacity per unit size.

And another? Convergence! Remember when a cellular phone was just a phone? Next they added a digital camera, and now you can get cellular phones that run a Windows-like operating system; have applications like word processing, spreadsheets and e-mail; incorporate a digital camera to support voice and/or video calling; internet streaming of TV broadcasts; and – wait for it – they also include MP3 playback. At a less portable level, we’re seeing PC’s forming the basis for “music servers” for multi-room sound.

(Maybe the choice of IT as an analogy wasn’t so far out after all?)

The market is changing! Why? Because we’re all changing!

The cost of living space is increasing and we’re less able to allocate decent-sized rooms for audio.
We’re always on the move, so there is less time for dedicated “sit & listen” in front of the hifi.
Portability of entertainment is a big attraction – music in the car, bus, train, airplane, etc.
Why carry separate items for photography, music, communication?

(He gazes into his crystal ball and makes some weird hand-movements, then turns to the audience and says “I see you in ten years time with a complete home entertainment system coupled with a complete communication and imaging system – and it bears the label “NOKIA!”)

DevillEars


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