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These numbers look (and sound) good to me!!!

12.4.185.2
Posted on May 1, 2015 at 05:40:37
Dman
Audiophile

Posts: 7211
Location: Kansas
Joined: January 28, 2001
 A little post from a few days ago at Analog Planet regarding vinyl sales last year.

Let the flames or fans begins...
Dman
Analog Junkie

 

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Encouraging but flawed, posted on May 1, 2015 at 13:08:02
CometCKO
Audiophile

Posts: 873
Joined: August 9, 2002
 The Nielsen numbers are a credible representation of trend, but absolute volume projection will be a function of how they estimate the channels not covered. There will always be a major difference between shipments & sales, as inventory & returns will have to be subtracted from shipments and they are usually not well known after things pass through the warehouses and distributors to get to actual retail outlets.

Nielsen will be a reliable trend yardstick as they will adjust for their coverage factors over time. Yet as noted, they will not cover the entire market. In consumer packaged goods, we always calculated coverage factors for Nielsen numbers by type of outlet. Their coverage of mass stores like Wal-Mart or Sams Club stores or of channels like Pharmacies, Convenience Stores and Grocery Stores were all different and affect forecast accuracy.

True sales estimates would require a knowledge of channel coverage factors as well as overall share by channel. It get's really dicey when considering direct-to-consumer sales and internet sales. Vinyl is not an easy market to measure or forecast.

Mikey is probably right that there is a huge understatement, but I'll bet Nielsen's not so far off either. Identifying and estimating all the above factors is probably too expensive relative to the value that Nielsen customers place on the sales reports. So likely, they are doing the best they can for the money and applying some science to sampling same stores and tracking the same categories of products over time.

Just commerce. An executive making an investment decision based on size & growth would rather be conservative anyway, so it's all good.




"Knowing what you don't know is, in a sense, omniscience"

 

RE: Encouraging but flawed, posted on May 4, 2015 at 08:00:22
Dman
Audiophile

Posts: 7211
Location: Kansas
Joined: January 28, 2001
 I tend to agree to a point. While I'm sure Mikey is a little over enthusiastic in his report, I'm also of the belief that neither Neilson or Soundscan can gauge EVERY vendor out there. There are a lot of Mom and Pop run shops that fly under radar. I think it would be an unfair bias either way if Neilson or Soundscan reported based ONLY on the number of pressings coming out of plants.

I'd also like to think that we must factor in how many pressings have defects and are returned/trashed/etc. and never "make it" in the real world. Sure, they may have been purchased initially, but who says that a vendor will take back a defective record (even for an exchange) or that the end user just doesn't trash it out of frustration (which I did only ONCE in my life)!

It's still an interesting read, nonetheless...

Cheers,
Dman
Analog Junkie

 

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